Insight certainty 4/5 debate potential 2/5

Woolard: Developing flat-cost tech against rapidly cheapening competitors is unwinnable

John Woolard · Why concentrated solar couldn’t compete · Nov 13, 2024 · at 2:25

Former BrightSource Energy CEO John Woolard reflects on the fundamental economic challenge of scaling concentrated solar power against rapidly falling photovoltaic costs.

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“If you're asked to develop something that's price is flat to increasing, when your competitor's price is decreasing every day, you're asked to do something you can't win at.”

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Assertion Contradicted
Woolard: California regulators tried to halt Ivanpah over a tarp's color
“We happened to have a brown cover to that temporary, 18 month manufacturing facility, and the CEC, California Energy Commission tried to stop all construction, which basically would have killed the project, because the color of the tarp was not the right color…”
John Woolard Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 17:49 Why concentrated solar couldn’t compete
Disclosure
Woolard: BrightSource leadership concluded CSP was no longer competitive in 2012
“That's when we basically said, we can no longer win game. We are no longer competitive. And that was a different message. We'd said, well, maybe you could, and you could sell in different attributes. But at that point, we said, this is no longer a competitive …”
John Woolard Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 22:49 Why concentrated solar couldn’t compete
Opinion
Woolard: Offshore wind at 15 cents is not economic against small nuclear
“To me, some of those might indicate that something like, I'll pick on offshore wind at You know, 15 cents and up is not economic compared to reliable power at a number lower than that.”
John Woolard Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 30:44 Why concentrated solar couldn’t compete
Assertion Contradicted
Woolard: BrightSource's power tower design cut solar thermal costs by ~40%
“It reduced, it was about a 40% cost reduction from the design alone.”
John Woolard Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 5:46 Why concentrated solar couldn’t compete
Assertion Supported
Woolard: BrightSource cut costs to $3.90/W while PV fell to $2.50/W
“Well, so the engineering team was working really diligently and really hard to do whatever they could on costs, and our costs were going from, say, five dollars a watt to four dollars and 30 cents a watt and maybe down to about three 90 a watt. Meanwhile, at t…”
John Woolard Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 23:22 Why concentrated solar couldn’t compete
Assertion Contradicted
Woolard: Ivanpah operates at roughly 90% of its design capacity
“Ivanpah had some awkward parts ramping up, but ultimately delivered and ramps and produces power and energy today at about 90% of its original design capacity.”
John Woolard Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 27:51 Why concentrated solar couldn’t compete
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