Opinion
Paul claims the CBO is anything but a fair and honest broker
“Both teams agree that they are, you know, a fair and honest kind of broker in the policy situation. But in fact, CBO is anything but.”
Opinion
Paul argues CBO gives ammunition to climate deniers without good reason
“The only hurdle we're facing today is a purely political one, and CBO, for no good reason, is giving additional ammunition to climate deniers left and right.”
Assertion Supported
CBO models arbitrarily assume public investment is half as productive as private
“The CBO is just simply assumes, pulls it out of a hat, that public investment is half as productive as private investment.”
Assertion Supported
Paul claims 2017 extreme weather events wiped out 60% of GDP growth
“In 2017, extreme weather events fueled by climate change wiped out 60% of GDP. More than half of economic growth was just eliminated due to extreme weather events.”
Assertion Supported
Trump-era report estimated unabated climate change costs 10% of GDP annually
“A report that came out under the Trump administration, the National Climate Assessment Four, estimated that unabated climate change would lead to damages in the realm of 10% of GDP every year into perpetuity.”
Opinion
Paul says NCA4 estimates underestimate damages in a three-degree warmed world
“And to be frank, I think that that is actually a underestimate of what things would look like in a three plus degree warmed world precisely because a habitable planet underpins absolutely everything in our lives.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Empirical evidence shows public investment often yields higher returns than private
“And here again, you know, the empirical evidence shows that that's just completely false. That is not at all how the economy works, and in the real world, often public investment has higher rates of return than private investment.”
Opinion
Paul calls CBO modeling a fundamental roadblock to US climate legislation
“I do think it is a fundamental roadblock to the United States passing any climate legislation.”
Assertion Supported
CBO can update its climate models without waiting for a congressional mandate
“The CBO doesn't need Congress's mandate to change their model here. In fact, they could do it without Congress. Congress could force them to, but there's no reason that the CBO needs to wait.”
Insight
Accounting for climate costs would fundamentally transform CBO legislative scoring
“And all CBO needs to do is simply account for those costs. And that would fundamentally change the calculations as to what legislation Is, quote, good or bad for the economy.”
Assertion Supported
CBO completely ignores the social cost of carbon in legislative budgetary scoring
“The social cost of carbon doesn't factor into the CBO analysis. The social cost of carbon is utilized for regulatory analysis, not for legislative budgetary analysis as done by the CBO. So they're essentially used in two different branches of government, but a…”
Assertion Supported
Sanders introduced a 2014 bill requiring CBO carbon scores on all legislation
“In fact, back in 2014, Senator Sanders introduced the Carbon Pollution Transparency Act which would have required CBO to calculate a carbon score for any and all legislation introduced.”
