Dr. Jack Kelly

Co-Founder, Open Climate Fix · 1 appearance on the record.

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founderscientistengineer@jack_kelly ↗jack-kelly.com ↗

Dr. Jack Kelly co-founded Open Climate Fix, an open-source non-profit lab using machine learning to help electricity grid operators balance renewable energy. Previously, he worked as a research engineer and tech lead at Google DeepMind focusing on wind power forecasting.

4statements → 2claims → 2claims resolved → 4/5average certainty → 1.5/5average debate potential →

2 supported 0 partly supported 0 contradicted how the 2 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

2 assertions · 2 insights · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 2 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 2 are resolved. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Dr. argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported

Open Climate Fix halved National Grid's one-hour-ahead solar forecast error

“We halved the error an hour ahead. At 24 hours ahead, I think the error was about 15% lower than their existing forecast.”

Dr. Jack Kelly Nov 16, 2023 ▶ 8:44 AI in the real world: Solar forecasting, EVs, and virtual power plants

What they said4 Episodes1

Everything Dr. Jack Kelly said on the Green Blueprint that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Insight

Forecast accuracy ranks surprisingly low for transmission system operators

“The skill of the forecast is surprisingly low on the list of priorities when transmission system operators are buying forecasts. So it's more about how understandable is it? How reliable are you? Do you have a track record? Can you deliver the forecast in this…”

Dr. Jack Kelly Nov 16, 2023 ▶ 12:29 AI in the real world: Solar forecasting, EVs, and virtual power plants

Assertion Supported

Open Climate Fix halved National Grid's one-hour-ahead solar forecast error

“We halved the error an hour ahead. At 24 hours ahead, I think the error was about 15% lower than their existing forecast.”

Dr. Jack Kelly Nov 16, 2023 ▶ 8:44 AI in the real world: Solar forecasting, EVs, and virtual power plants

Assertion Supported

Kelly: Solar was National Grid ESO's biggest demand forecasting uncertainty

“The biggest source of uncertainty for their demand forecast came from their solar power forecast.”

Dr. Jack Kelly Nov 16, 2023 ▶ 6:56 AI in the real world: Solar forecasting, EVs, and virtual power plants

Insight

Kelly: Numerical weather models struggle to generate detailed cloud maps

“Which is all to say that NWPs, whilst they do a great job of predicting things like humidity and temperature, converting that to a really detailed map of where the clouds are is known to be fairly imperfect at the moment.”

Dr. Jack Kelly Nov 16, 2023 ▶ 8:03 AI in the real world: Solar forecasting, EVs, and virtual power plants

Appearances (1)

Episode	Date	Speaking time
AI in the real world: Solar forecasting, EVs, and virtual power plants	Nov 16, 2023	1m

Dr. Jack Kelly

The record, in short

Their most notable supported claim

Appearances (1)

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