Jan 26, 2022 · 17m · green-blueprint

Why US carbon emissions are rising quickly

Dr. Melissa Lott · 8m spoken Stephen Lacey · 6m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

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Host Stephen Lacey and energy researcher Dr. Melissa Lott analyze the post-pandemic rebound in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, breaking down the underlying drivers behind surging freight transportation, unexpected coal power resurgence, and the broader challenges of achieving net-zero emissions.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →

The hosts as informed peer 4.0 Guest teaching 2.8 Guest disagreement 0.0 The hosts pushing back 0.4
05100:0010:000:00–3:36 · The hosts as informed peer 2/10 Cross-Promotion for The Big Switch Podcast Lacey sets up the episode with a warm intro and personal anecdotes about Dr. Lott's work and pandemic observations. The dynamic is fully collaborative, friendly, and narrative-driven.3:38–6:45 · The hosts as informed peer 4/10 Rhodium Group Report on 2021 Carbon Emissions Rebound Lacey introduces the Rhodium Group report data with solid context on the 2020 drop and 2021 rebound. Lott details specific sector-by-sector emission rebound percentages across industry, power, and transport.6:46–9:19 · The hosts as informed peer 4/10 Transportation Sector Dynamics and Long-Term Trends Lacey probes which pandemic shifts will be durable versus temporary. Lott explains counterintuitive findings, noting passenger gasoline demand remained flat rather than surging or plummeting as many had predicted.9:21–12:11 · The hosts as informed peer 5/10 The Surprising Resurgence of Coal Power Lacey demonstrates solid subject mastery by citing coal's historical generation shares from 50 percent down to 19 percent and explaining how high gas prices triggered coal's rebound. Lott adds detail regarding regional market competitiveness.12:15–16:25 · The hosts as informed peer 5/10 Grid Reliability, Dispatchable Power, and Coal's Future Lacey pushes with the question of why cheap renewables cannot immediately retire all coal capacity. Lott educates on the necessity of dispatchable firm power, grid reliability gaps, and equity challenges like energy insecurity.0:00–3:36 · Guest teaching 1/10 Cross-Promotion for The Big Switch Podcast Lacey sets up the episode with a warm intro and personal anecdotes about Dr. Lott's work and pandemic observations. The dynamic is fully collaborative, friendly, and narrative-driven.3:38–6:45 · Guest teaching 3/10 Rhodium Group Report on 2021 Carbon Emissions Rebound Lacey introduces the Rhodium Group report data with solid context on the 2020 drop and 2021 rebound. Lott details specific sector-by-sector emission rebound percentages across industry, power, and transport.6:46–9:19 · Guest teaching 3/10 Transportation Sector Dynamics and Long-Term Trends Lacey probes which pandemic shifts will be durable versus temporary. Lott explains counterintuitive findings, noting passenger gasoline demand remained flat rather than surging or plummeting as many had predicted.9:21–12:11 · Guest teaching 3/10 The Surprising Resurgence of Coal Power Lacey demonstrates solid subject mastery by citing coal's historical generation shares from 50 percent down to 19 percent and explaining how high gas prices triggered coal's rebound. Lott adds detail regarding regional market competitiveness.12:15–16:25 · Guest teaching 4/10 Grid Reliability, Dispatchable Power, and Coal's Future Lacey pushes with the question of why cheap renewables cannot immediately retire all coal capacity. Lott educates on the necessity of dispatchable firm power, grid reliability gaps, and equity challenges like energy insecurity.0:00–3:36 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Cross-Promotion for The Big Switch Podcast Lacey sets up the episode with a warm intro and personal anecdotes about Dr. Lott's work and pandemic observations. The dynamic is fully collaborative, friendly, and narrative-driven.3:38–6:45 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Rhodium Group Report on 2021 Carbon Emissions Rebound Lacey introduces the Rhodium Group report data with solid context on the 2020 drop and 2021 rebound. Lott details specific sector-by-sector emission rebound percentages across industry, power, and transport.6:46–9:19 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Transportation Sector Dynamics and Long-Term Trends Lacey probes which pandemic shifts will be durable versus temporary. Lott explains counterintuitive findings, noting passenger gasoline demand remained flat rather than surging or plummeting as many had predicted.9:21–12:11 · Guest disagreement 0/10 The Surprising Resurgence of Coal Power Lacey demonstrates solid subject mastery by citing coal's historical generation shares from 50 percent down to 19 percent and explaining how high gas prices triggered coal's rebound. Lott adds detail regarding regional market competitiveness.12:15–16:25 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Grid Reliability, Dispatchable Power, and Coal's Future Lacey pushes with the question of why cheap renewables cannot immediately retire all coal capacity. Lott educates on the necessity of dispatchable firm power, grid reliability gaps, and equity challenges like energy insecurity.0:00–3:36 · The hosts pushing back 0/10 Cross-Promotion for The Big Switch Podcast Lacey sets up the episode with a warm intro and personal anecdotes about Dr. Lott's work and pandemic observations. The dynamic is fully collaborative, friendly, and narrative-driven.3:38–6:45 · The hosts pushing back 0/10 Rhodium Group Report on 2021 Carbon Emissions Rebound Lacey introduces the Rhodium Group report data with solid context on the 2020 drop and 2021 rebound. Lott details specific sector-by-sector emission rebound percentages across industry, power, and transport.6:46–9:19 · The hosts pushing back 0/10 Transportation Sector Dynamics and Long-Term Trends Lacey probes which pandemic shifts will be durable versus temporary. Lott explains counterintuitive findings, noting passenger gasoline demand remained flat rather than surging or plummeting as many had predicted.9:21–12:11 · The hosts pushing back 1/10 The Surprising Resurgence of Coal Power Lacey demonstrates solid subject mastery by citing coal's historical generation shares from 50 percent down to 19 percent and explaining how high gas prices triggered coal's rebound. Lott adds detail regarding regional market competitiveness.12:15–16:25 · The hosts pushing back 1/10 Grid Reliability, Dispatchable Power, and Coal's Future Lacey pushes with the question of why cheap renewables cannot immediately retire all coal capacity. Lott educates on the necessity of dispatchable firm power, grid reliability gaps, and equity challenges like energy insecurity.

speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%0:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 7:19 Dismantling extreme passenger travel assumptions

In a thoroughly cooperative episode, Lott offers her firmest counter to prevailing narratives by pointing out that passenger gasoline demand stayed flat despite widespread extreme predictions of massive spikes or drops.

Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 12:25 Questioning why renewables cannot replace coal immediately

Lacey directly presses the core paradox of why record-cheap wind and solar cannot instantly shutter remaining coal capacity.

Biggest teaching moment ▶ 12:45 Masterclass on firm dispatchable power

Lott clearly explains the technical realities of grid intermittency, detailing why dispatchable firm power from coal and gas remains essential to keep lights on 24/7.

The host holds their own ▶ 9:21 Host lays out coal's historical and statistical trajectory

Lacey displays deep domain knowledge by walking through coal's long decline from 50 percent of US generation in 2007 to 19 percent in 2020 before contextualizing the 2021 spike.

the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe hosts as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe hosts pushing backWhy
Cross-Promotion for The Big Switch Podcast 2100 Lacey sets up the episode with a warm intro and personal anecdotes about Dr. Lott's work and pandemic observations. The dynamic is fully collaborative, friendly, and narrative-driven.
Rhodium Group Report on 2021 Carbon Emissions Rebound 4300 Lacey introduces the Rhodium Group report data with solid context on the 2020 drop and 2021 rebound. Lott details specific sector-by-sector emission rebound percentages across industry, power, and transport.
Transportation Sector Dynamics and Long-Term Trends 4300 Lacey probes which pandemic shifts will be durable versus temporary. Lott explains counterintuitive findings, noting passenger gasoline demand remained flat rather than surging or plummeting as many had predicted.
The Surprising Resurgence of Coal Power 5301 Lacey demonstrates solid subject mastery by citing coal's historical generation shares from 50 percent down to 19 percent and explaining how high gas prices triggered coal's rebound. Lott adds detail regarding regional market competitiveness.
Grid Reliability, Dispatchable Power, and Coal's Future 5401 Lacey pushes with the question of why cheap renewables cannot immediately retire all coal capacity. Lott educates on the necessity of dispatchable firm power, grid reliability gaps, and equity challenges like energy insecurity.

Statements from this episode (9)

Assertion Supported
Lott: Freight trucks drove a post-pandemic rebound in US diesel demand
“And, you know, we can see in transportation that, like, diesel demand is really up again. And this is coming from a lot of freight, a lot of trucks on the road, moving goods around, moving all that stuff that we're buying.”
Dr. Melissa Lott Jan 26, 2022 ▶ 1:58
Assertion Supported
Lott: US transportation emissions dropped 15% in 2020, then rebounded 10%
“So, transportation had decreased overall by, I think, was 15% from 2019 to 20 20, and we've seen it come back by 10%.”
Dr. Melissa Lott Jan 26, 2022 ▶ 5:43
Assertion Supported
Lott: US electric power emissions rebounded 6.5% after a 10% drop
“So that's back up overall, you know, went down 10% and it's back up six and a half percent.”
Dr. Melissa Lott Jan 26, 2022 ▶ 6:24
Assertion Contradicted
Lott: US passenger gasoline demand remained flat in 2021 despite predictions
“Overall, I think what is surprising to some, maybe surprising to a lot of people, is that if you look at gasoline demand for passenger transport, it's actually been pretty [440] SPEAKER_05: Flat. [441] Dr. Melissa Lott: So some people were saying, oh, it's goi…”
Dr. Melissa Lott Jan 26, 2022 ▶ 7:10
Assertion Supported
Lacey: US coal generation grew by double digits in 2021
“15 years ago, coal made up half of the electricity produced in the U.S. In 2020, it fell to 19%. But in 2021, coal use increased by double digits, even though demand for power increased by only a few percentage points.”
Stephen Lacey Jan 26, 2022 ▶ 9:52
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lott: Coal power remains economically competitive in pockets of the American West
“So there's some parts of the country I'm thinking about some pockets in the West where actually coal still makes it in the market. It's still competitive. It's still alive.”
Dr. Melissa Lott Jan 26, 2022 ▶ 12:04
Assertion Supported
Lacey: Fossil gas, not renewables, drove the decline of US coal
“Fossil gas has been the biggest factor in the decline of coal, even though renewables are booming.”
Stephen Lacey Jan 26, 2022 ▶ 12:18
Prediction Held up
Lott: 2021 US coal power resurgence will be short-term
“So I can't see coal roaring back to its glory days of a few decades ago. I don't think anyone sees that. I personally think it'll be shorter term.”
Dr. Melissa Lott Jan 26, 2022 ▶ 13:46
Assertion Supported
Lott: One in three Americans is currently energy insecure
“I think about the one in three Americans that are currently energy insecure in this country right now. They either can't pay their bills or they're not turning on their air conditioning or heating and making their home healthy to be in because they know they c…”
Dr. Melissa Lott Jan 26, 2022 ▶ 14:51
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