Jun 22, 2022 · 46m · green-blueprint
Catalyst: Will the bear market hurt clean energy?
Saloni Multani · 20m spoken Shayle Kann · 17m spoken Stephen Lacey · 1m spoken News Anchor · 15s spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of Catalyst, host Shayle Kann and climate investor Saloni Multani evaluate how rising interest rates, inflation, and public equity sell-offs impact climate technology and clean energy infrastructure. They examine whether secular decarbonization demand, dedicated fund architectures, and lessons from historical downturns provide structural resilience against broader tech market headwinds.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 5.3 Guest teaching 2.7 Guest disagreement 1.1 The hosts pushing back 1.5
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 14:19 Multani rejects premise of climate tech being uniquely overextended
When Kann asks if climate tech got out over its skis, Multani gently rejects the premise that climate tech was uniquely guilty, reframing the pullback as a macro tech-wide risk rotation.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 14:07 Kann questions whether the climate tech market overheatedKann directly challenges the prevailing optimism by asking Multani if market valuations and capital deployment went too far over the prior two years.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 22:15 Multani distinguishes climate TAM fundamentals from pandemic demand pull-forwardMultani provides a clear conceptual framework differentiating ephemeral stay-at-home tech valuations from the unavoidable physical realities driving permanent climate market expansion.
The host holds their own ▶ 40:57 Kann explains structural differences between Cleantech 1.0 and 2.0When prompted by the guest, Kann delivers a comprehensive historical analysis explaining why dedicated, ring-fenced fund mandates create structural resilience that didn't exist in 2008.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayle Kann on the Broad Tech Downturn and Climate Tech | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Solo host intro by Shayle Kann setting up the macro context of interest rate hikes, the public tech sell-off, and the central question of climate tech resilience. | |
| Historical Capital Flow and the Low-Rate Environment | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | Collaborative discussion establishing historical low interest rates and asset flows into ESG and SPACs. Kann jumps in with domain knowledge on high CapEx renewable economics versus gas peakers to sharpen Multani's explanation. | |
| Valuation Dynamics Across Growth Equity and Infrastructure | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Multani breaks down inverse relationship between yield requirements and asset valuations across early-stage and infrastructure. Kann shares personal historical benchmarks tracking solar markets back to 2009. | |
| Market Correction and Shifting Investor Risk Appetite | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Kann probes whether climate tech got out over its skis. Multani pushes back gently against tagging climate tech uniquely, contextualizing the shift as a broad cross-sector rotation away from capital-consumptive risk. | |
| Macroeconomic Shocks and the Core Dilemma for Climate Tech | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | Kann sets up the fundamental dilemma between macro contraction and locked climate capital flows. Multani lists compounding headwinds from inflation, supply chain snarls, and Ukraine commodity shocks. | |
| Resilience of Dedicated ESG Capital and Secular Climate Demand | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Multani delivers detailed insights on Q1 ESG fund flow durability and explains why physical climate realities protect underlying addressable markets compared to pandemic tech like Zoom or Peloton. | |
| The Green Premium and the Test of Climate Resolve | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Kann highlights the vulnerability of early technologies requiring a green premium, citing sustainable aviation fuel procurement. Multani agrees this is a chief vulnerability when externalized costs lack statutory pricing. | |
| Impact of Interest Rate Hikes on Clean Infrastructure | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Multani explains why rising offtake power prices cushion clean infrastructure against interest rate hikes. Kann provides a clear, high-level synthesis contrasting clean power against European natural gas volatility. | |
| Navigating Downturns: Investment Strategy and Long-Term Horizons | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Kann and Multani trade notes on managing investment committees and portfolio company cash runway during uncertain inflection points, drawing parallels to the 2008 crash and the early 2020 pandemic dip. | |
| Climate Tech 2.0 vs. Cleantech 1.0: Dedicated Capital and Talent | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Multani turns the tables and asks Kann to compare current conditions to Cleantech 1.0. Kann explains the structural shift from opportunistic generalist funds to massive pools of dedicated, locked-in climate capital. |
Statements from this episode (13)
Kann: Majority of recent tech IPOs are down 50% or more
“Right now, it's been particularly rough on recently IPO'd Tech companies, the majority of which are down 50% or more, and that's not to mention the SPACs, which are the de-SPACs, I should say, which are performing even worse.”
Multani: Climate transition is fundamentally a capital stock turnover challenge
“Climate is at its core a capital stock turnover problem where we need to deploy Ultimately, pretty low-cost capital. The corpus of it needs to be in order to turn over our brown infrastructure and make it green.”
Multani: Over 600 SPACs raised in 2021 included substantial climate focus
“There were like over 600 SPACs raised in twenty-twenty-one. It was, you know, a good chunk of them were climate tech related.”
Multani: Pre-revenue climate startups raised public money at very low capital costs
“There was clearly a appetite for
You know, just the supply-demand drove the cost of capital for some of these growth companies, these early-stage companies that might be pre-revenue, certainly
Pre-cash flow.
They were able to raise money to fund those cash flo…”
Multani: Climate tech was not uniquely overextended during the bull market
“I think what I'd say is I don't want to tag us in the climate tech ecosystem as being sort of uniquely guilty of getting out over our skis.”
Multani: Persistent inflation and rapid rate hikes drive hard landing fears
“I think ultimately the rate rises and people internalizing what those meant after so many years of persistently low rates, and given how persistent inflation is, the reality that we're going to have to Potentially I do this faster than people thought. I think …”
Multani: ESG fund flows are proving more resilient than conventional flows
“The ESG fund flows, the ones that can go back and forth, have actually been more resilient. Look, everything is down, right, but have been more resilient than conventional fund flows.”
Kann: Sustainable aviation fuel procurements scale despite high cost premiums
“You look at the procurements that airlines are making for sustainable aviation fuel, none of which is cost competitive with traditional jet fuel today, but it's happening at fairly significant volume already just with bio-based sustainable aviation fuels, and …”
Multani: Corporate willingness to voluntarily pay green premiums will get tested
“The appetite to spend to internalize an externality that you're not forced to through some regulatory regime, right, inevitably through some policy regime, I think will absolutely get tested.”
Multani: Rising offtake prices cushion clean energy infrastructure from rate hikes
“The reason why I think the impact won't be as big is as you think about the contracts that get struck, right? It's a function of your ultimate spread is a function of your offtake minus your input costs. And so, and one of your input costs is going to be cost …”
Kann: Climate tech is not yet experiencing capital scarcity
“I will say, from my side, it doesn't quite yet feel like scarcity. In climate tech world, it may soon, you know, it's hard to predict. We're not quite there yet, though, I don't think”