Sep 7, 2023 · 19m · green-blueprint

Inflation headwinds for offshore wind

Jan Matthiessen · 9m spoken Stephen Lacey · 6m spoken

0:00 / 0:00

gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions

This episode of The Carbon Copy explores how post-pandemic inflation, rising interest rates, and supply chain bottlenecks are challenging offshore wind developments in the United States and Europe, while examining the technological innovations that will support the industry's long-term expansion.

Chapters · click to jump

3 statements ▾

Offshore wind installations dropped after reaching 21,000 MW in 2021 open →

Delayed or canceled projects equal 10% of EU and US capacity open →

Bloomberg: 9.7 GW of US offshore wind at risk of contract renegotiation open →

3 statements ▾

Vattenfall halted major offshore wind project due to 40% cost increase open →

Offshore wind is facing broad cost increases of around 20% open →

Offshore wind LCOE can sometimes beat onshore wind due to scale open →

1 statement ▾

Floating offshore wind will scale commercially and achieve further cost reductions open →

1 statement ▾

Scaling green hydrogen is more complex due to lack of existing infrastructure open →

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →

The hosts as informed peer 3.8 Guest teaching 2.2 Guest disagreement 0.4 The hosts pushing back 0.2

speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

Sharpest disagreement ▶ 13:20 Caveating economic forecasting limits

Matthiessen gently resists the host's invitation to make definitive economic timeline forecasts, noting he is not an economist and explaining persistent geopolitical factors.

Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 10:36 Probing developer profiles

Lacey presses on whether the capital intensity of offshore wind leaves oil and gas supermajors as the only viable developers able to weather the downturn.

Biggest teaching moment ▶ 16:20 Explaining the multi-sided hydrogen challenge

Matthiessen educates on why offshore wind-to-hydrogen is fundamentally harder than power generation, requiring simultaneous buildout of production, specialized transport, and industrial end-user demand.

The host holds their own ▶ 5:23 Citing policy targets and project cancellations

Lacey marshals precise data regarding Biden's 30 GW target, recent cancellations off Massachusetts and Rhode Island, and Vattenfall's 40% cost hike to frame the industry crisis.

the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each

Topic	The hosts as informed peer	Guest teaching	Guest disagreement	The hosts pushing back	Why
Upcoming Transition AI and Canary Live October Events	0	0	0	0	Introductory event announcements and promotional ads for upcoming live conferences. As a monologue/promotional opening, there is no direct host-guest dynamic.
Introduction to Offshore Wind Scale and Rising Inflation	5	2	0	0	Narrated intro where Stephen Lacey frames the physical scale of modern offshore wind turbines alongside data on capacity cancellations and rising inflation. Jan Matthiessen provides complementary engineering context.
Supply Chain Inflation, Financing Pressures, and Offshore Risks	6	3	1	1	The host asks informed, structured questions regarding interest rate hikes, balance sheet requirements, and differences between onshore and offshore vulnerabilities. Matthiessen breaks down supply chain capex and clarifies the developer landscape.
Long-Term Outlook, Floating Wind, and Market Resilience	4	2	1	0	The host invites long-term projections on floating wind and market recovery. Matthiessen carefully caveats that he is an engineer rather than an economist before detailing macroeconomic and geopolitical tailwinds.
Maritime Decarbonization and Offshore Wind-to-Hydrogen Integration	4	4	0	0	Stephen asks about maritime decarbonization and green hydrogen feasibility. Matthiessen offers a thorough breakdown of systemic infrastructure challenges compared to conventional grid-tied offshore wind.

Statements from this episode (8)

Assertion Supported

Offshore wind installations dropped after reaching 21,000 MW in 2021

“In twenty-twenty-one, offshore wind developers built 21,000 megawatts of capacity, but installations are down, and that's because the financial picture has worsened over the last two years, thanks largely to inflation.”

Stephen Lacey Sep 7, 2023 ▶ 3:58

Assertion Supported

Delayed or canceled projects equal 10% of EU and US capacity

“In the last few months, three major projects in Europe and America have been delayed or canceled thanks to rapidly rising costs. Those projects make up more than 10% of current offshore wind capacity already installed in the EU and US.”

Stephen Lacey Sep 7, 2023 ▶ 4:28

Assertion Supported

Bloomberg: 9.7 GW of US offshore wind at risk of contract renegotiation

“And Bloomberg says another 9.7 gigawatts are at risk in America as developers look to renegotiate contracts.”

Stephen Lacey Sep 7, 2023 ▶ 4:42

Assertion Supported

Vattenfall halted major offshore wind project due to 40% cost increase

“Many projects are still going forward, but the European utility Vattenfall just shut down construction of one of the biggest wind farms in the region, Setting a 40% rise in costs.”

Stephen Lacey Sep 7, 2023 ▶ 6:23

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Offshore wind is facing broad cost increases of around 20%

“So that means cost increases, and we're looking at around 20%, and it's getting really, that is really cutting across not only offshore wind, but it's also, you know, impacting other sectors.”

Jan Matthiessen Sep 7, 2023 ▶ 7:17

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Offshore wind LCOE can sometimes beat onshore wind due to scale

“But then on the other side, you can generate electricity at much larger scale. So the turbines are much larger, more efficiency you know, higher wind speeds offshore. And that means that actually the levelized cost of energy is actually lower than for example,…”

Jan Matthiessen Sep 7, 2023 ▶ 10:19

Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2028

Floating offshore wind will scale commercially and achieve further cost reductions

“Projects are becoming bigger, and we will see floating wind, floating offshore wind becoming commercially much more scaled, much larger than we see in the moment. And that will we see further cost reduction, I'm sure because of the scale and larger projects, l…”

Jan Matthiessen Sep 7, 2023 ▶ 12:32

Insight

Scaling green hydrogen is more complex due to lack of existing infrastructure

“Well, in offshore wind, in a way, we focused on the production sites, you know, putting offshore winter ones in the water, but There is a grid system. There's an electricity market that we can plug in. So from this perspective, offshore wind was an easy one. Y…”

Jan Matthiessen Sep 7, 2023 ▶ 17:14

Inflation headwinds for offshore wind

How this conversation actually went

Statements from this episode (8)

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