Jun 10, 2024 · 37m · green-blueprint
AI-fueled geothermal and ‘the edge of the possible’
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of The Carbon Copy, host Stephen Lacey speaks with Obvious Ventures Managing Director Andrew Beebe about the evolution of climate tech investing, the double-edged impact of AI power demand, and how generative science and historical scaling lessons are shaping next-generation clean energy.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 5.5 Guest teaching 2.8 Guest disagreement 1.0 The hosts pushing back 1.3
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 25:54 Andrew concedes eVTOL timeline overstatement
Beebe directly admits his previous rapid timeline predictions for eVTOL aircraft were an unrealistic stretch.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 25:27 Stephen checks Andrew's 2018 aviation forecastLacey holds Beebe to account by citing his exact 2018 predictions about rapid regional air travel disruption.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 19:15 Andrew breaks down Zanskar's geothermal hit rateBeebe explains the technical physics of geothermal exploration and how AI models increase exploratory hit rates from 10% to 90%.
The host holds their own ▶ 12:46 Stephen cites Microsoft emissions and AI power surgeLacey anchors the AI thesis with hard data from Microsoft's recent sustainability report showing a 30% emissions increase.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| From Dot-Com Skepticism to Big Step Success | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Lacey sets the scene with background context on Beebe's early dot-com days and the nascent cleantech venture scene in the early 2000s. Beebe shares his founder journey in an engaging, narrative style without any tension or debate. | |
| Partnering with Bill Gross to Pioneer Solar Photovoltaics | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Lacey cites current solar installation statistics compared to 2003 and prompts Beebe on expected versus unexpected market dynamics. Beebe explains how silicon supply chain scaling beat out high-tech breakthrough module designs. | |
| Introduction to The Carbon Copy and Obvious Ventures | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | Lacey frames the macro discussion with detailed observations on rising power load, IRA spending, and macroeconomic changes since 2021. Beebe admits he often avoids holding himself accountable before unpacking changes in capital flows and talent influx. | |
| Unlocking Baseload Power: Nuclear, Fusion, and AI-Driven Geothermal | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Lacey demonstrates strong command of the space, citing Microsoft sustainability figures and probing specific definitions of geothermal resources. Beebe explains the generational roadmap across fusion, fission, and generative AI geothermal exploration via Zanskar. | |
| The Rise of Generative Science and Physical Modeling | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | Lacey suggests frontier areas like geologic hydrogen exploration and grid modeling for AI deployment. Beebe builds on this with examples from digital twin history, aerodynamic modeling, and materials simulation. | |
| The Reality and Future Adoption Curve of Electric Aviation | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | Lacey directly references their 2018 interview and presses Beebe on whether electric vertical takeoff aviation delivered on its promises. Beebe concedes that calling the rollout quick was an overstatement and outlines a more realistic adoption curve. | |
| Avoiding Commodity Traps and Hardware Pitfalls in Climate Tech | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Lacey prompts Beebe on lessons from Cleantech 1.0 failures such as thin film and concentrating solar. Beebe explains why Obvious Ventures deliberately bypassed battery chemistry startups to avoid low-margin commodity traps. | |
| Wildcards: Political Consensus, Smart Grids, and Stranded Assets | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Lacey asks for tech and political wildcards for the decade ahead. Beebe outlines emerging consensus dynamics, AI-enabled smart grids, and impending stranded asset challenges for internal combustion vehicle fleets. |
Statements from this episode (17)
Lacey: Daily Solar Installations Now Equal Full-Year 2003 Total
“We install about as much solar PV in a single day than we installed in all of 2003.”
Beebe: Solar Costs Dropped From $10/Watt to Under $0.20/Watt Today
“We went from 10 dollars a watt when I started to a dollar a watt when I was, ah, leaving, and really people have taken it almost an order of magnitude down from there, and it's just extraordinary.”
Beebe: Solar Scaled Through Brute-Force Supply Chains, Not Novel Tech
“And one of the key catalysts that I hadn't really understood was the ability to use non-semiconductor grade silicon, you know, not the purest type of silicon to make solar cells. So instead of radical innovation, you know people like Nanosolar and even Solyndr…”
Beebe: Corporate consensus on climate commitments is weakening
“I don't think the corporate consensus is as tight as it even was four years ago. I think that people are hedging their bets, hemming and hawing”
Beebe: Big Tech will build gas plants for AI, delaying climate goals
“The latest version of that that I'm very worried about is large tech companies acknowledging, hey, you know, we're not going to lose this AI thing. I think they're going to blame it on China and say, hey, it's a national security. Security thing we can't lose,…”
Beebe: Fusion energy is a 20 to 50 year commercial timeline
“That's going to happen with fusion too. It's got better characteristics. It's baseload. We could put it all over but it's going to take a long time to make that cost effective. That's a 20 to 50 year benefit that we should be focused on now, investing research…”
Beebe: Zanskar has proven a 90% hit rate for exploratory geothermal wells
“Today, when we do, when we drill wells looking for geothermal, we'll drill 10 wells and get one hot spot. And that's not cost effective. Those wells are very expensive. With Zanskar, they have been proven that they can drill 10 wells and get 90% hit rates, and…”
Beebe: Geothermal can power AI data centers in 3-4 years vs 10 for SMRs
“Building de novo facilities to power either clusters or giga sites for massive data centers, I think is going to be much, much harder, and they're going to try with small modular reactors, that's a ten-year kind of process, but doing it with geothermal, I thin…”
Beebe: AI modeling will accelerate fusion vessel and materials design cycles
“The same thing is going to happen with things like fusion containment vessels, and then we will, the iterative loop of how quickly we can build and test things is going to get much more rapid, and the same thing with chemistry models for materials.”
Beebe: Lilium is one to two years from commercial flight
“I think they are, let's say, a year or two away from human and commercial flight.”
Beebe: US battery manufacturing requires major political contortions to succeed
“I don't think cell manufacturing is going to happen here without contortions on the political front.”
Beebe: Battery Industry Will Be as Big or Bigger Than Solar
“I think batteries are going to be as big in industry, if not bigger, than solar in a lot of ways because of their impact on automotive.”
Beebe: Obvious Ventures Has Never Invested in Battery Chemistry Startups
“And we, and yet, we have not invested in a single battery chemistry company, and I'm very happy about that.”
Beebe: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Startups Lack 10-Plus Year Business Durability
“I'm not sure that's a 10 year plus long-term sustainable business. A lot of my venture friends have made bets in that space, and we have not.”
Beebe: AI applied to the grid may finally deliver smart grids
“I do think that AI, you know, the ultimate complex system is the grid. I think that AI applied to the grid itself may actually finally deliver us This smart grid that we've all been talking about for decades.”
Beebe: It is game over for hydrogen and internal combustion vehicles
“I, you know, I think it's game over for hydrogen based vehicles. It's game over for internal combustion engines.”
Beebe: Internal combustion fleet residual values will plummet, impacting insurers
“I'm watching residual values of internal combustion fleets because I think they're going to plummet. I think that's going to have an impact on lease companies. I think it's going to have an impact on insurance companies.”