Sep 10, 2025 · 32m · green-blueprint

The sunk cost dilemma

Damien Beauchamp · 21m spoken Lara Pierpoint · 8m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

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In this episode of The Green Blueprints, host Laura Pierpoint interviews Eight Rivers CEO Damien Beauchamp about overcoming the sunk cost dilemma, navigating first-of-a-kind project risks, and commercializing heavy industrial decarbonization technologies like the Allam-Fetvedt Cycle and Project Cormorant.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →

The hosts as informed peer 3.9 Guest teaching 2.9 Guest disagreement 0.3 The hosts pushing back 0.7
05100:0010:0020:0030:000:02–2:36 · The hosts as informed peer 1/10 The Sunk Cost Dilemma and Project Cormorant Introductory narrative segment featuring edited audio clips of Damien Beauchamp explaining the sunk cost fallacy during FEED studies for Project Cormorant. There is no real-time dialogue.2:39–8:22 · The hosts as informed peer 3/10 Introduction to The Green Blueprints and Eight Rivers Host sets up the historical narrative and company thesis behind Eight Rivers and the Allam-Fetvet cycle, intercut with guest explanations of contrarian physical infrastructure investing.8:23–11:32 · The hosts as informed peer 4/10 Project Cormorant and Hydrogen-to-Ammonia Strategy Host asks technical questions regarding the transition from power generation to hydrogen and ammonia production. Guest explains the mechanics of the CO2 convective reformer and why pure hydrogen has weak standalone offtake compared to ammonia.11:32–16:21 · The hosts as informed peer 5/10 Offtake Volatility and Navigating Policy Delays Host probes the project finance model and international policy delays in South Korea that stalled the anchor offtake agreement. Guest candidly details the resulting moment of panic and subsequent pivots.16:31–19:54 · The hosts as informed peer 4/10 Redesign Optimization and Port Arthur Permitting Host questions guest about permitting snags in Texas despite the business-friendly regulatory climate. Guest explains unexpected local hurdles involving pipeline crossings over streams and wetland classifications.19:55–28:00 · The hosts as informed peer 6/10 Engineering Turbines and Partnering with Siemens Energy Host presses on how Eight Rivers structured commercial agreements with major turbine OEMs like Siemens Energy, distinguishing between fee-for-service development and shared risk partnerships.28:01–31:38 · The hosts as informed peer 4/10 Supply Chain Diversity and Eight Rivers' Future Vision Host asks guest to analyze NetPower's separate turbine partnership with Baker Hughes and closes with Eight Rivers' long-term commercial goals.0:02–2:36 · Guest teaching 0/10 The Sunk Cost Dilemma and Project Cormorant Introductory narrative segment featuring edited audio clips of Damien Beauchamp explaining the sunk cost fallacy during FEED studies for Project Cormorant. There is no real-time dialogue.2:39–8:22 · Guest teaching 2/10 Introduction to The Green Blueprints and Eight Rivers Host sets up the historical narrative and company thesis behind Eight Rivers and the Allam-Fetvet cycle, intercut with guest explanations of contrarian physical infrastructure investing.8:23–11:32 · Guest teaching 4/10 Project Cormorant and Hydrogen-to-Ammonia Strategy Host asks technical questions regarding the transition from power generation to hydrogen and ammonia production. Guest explains the mechanics of the CO2 convective reformer and why pure hydrogen has weak standalone offtake compared to ammonia.11:32–16:21 · Guest teaching 4/10 Offtake Volatility and Navigating Policy Delays Host probes the project finance model and international policy delays in South Korea that stalled the anchor offtake agreement. Guest candidly details the resulting moment of panic and subsequent pivots.16:31–19:54 · Guest teaching 3/10 Redesign Optimization and Port Arthur Permitting Host questions guest about permitting snags in Texas despite the business-friendly regulatory climate. Guest explains unexpected local hurdles involving pipeline crossings over streams and wetland classifications.19:55–28:00 · Guest teaching 5/10 Engineering Turbines and Partnering with Siemens Energy Host presses on how Eight Rivers structured commercial agreements with major turbine OEMs like Siemens Energy, distinguishing between fee-for-service development and shared risk partnerships.28:01–31:38 · Guest teaching 2/10 Supply Chain Diversity and Eight Rivers' Future Vision Host asks guest to analyze NetPower's separate turbine partnership with Baker Hughes and closes with Eight Rivers' long-term commercial goals.0:02–2:36 · Guest disagreement 0/10 The Sunk Cost Dilemma and Project Cormorant Introductory narrative segment featuring edited audio clips of Damien Beauchamp explaining the sunk cost fallacy during FEED studies for Project Cormorant. There is no real-time dialogue.2:39–8:22 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Introduction to The Green Blueprints and Eight Rivers Host sets up the historical narrative and company thesis behind Eight Rivers and the Allam-Fetvet cycle, intercut with guest explanations of contrarian physical infrastructure investing.8:23–11:32 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Project Cormorant and Hydrogen-to-Ammonia Strategy Host asks technical questions regarding the transition from power generation to hydrogen and ammonia production. Guest explains the mechanics of the CO2 convective reformer and why pure hydrogen has weak standalone offtake compared to ammonia.11:32–16:21 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Offtake Volatility and Navigating Policy Delays Host probes the project finance model and international policy delays in South Korea that stalled the anchor offtake agreement. Guest candidly details the resulting moment of panic and subsequent pivots.16:31–19:54 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Redesign Optimization and Port Arthur Permitting Host questions guest about permitting snags in Texas despite the business-friendly regulatory climate. Guest explains unexpected local hurdles involving pipeline crossings over streams and wetland classifications.19:55–28:00 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Engineering Turbines and Partnering with Siemens Energy Host presses on how Eight Rivers structured commercial agreements with major turbine OEMs like Siemens Energy, distinguishing between fee-for-service development and shared risk partnerships.28:01–31:38 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Supply Chain Diversity and Eight Rivers' Future Vision Host asks guest to analyze NetPower's separate turbine partnership with Baker Hughes and closes with Eight Rivers' long-term commercial goals.0:02–2:36 · The hosts pushing back 0/10 The Sunk Cost Dilemma and Project Cormorant Introductory narrative segment featuring edited audio clips of Damien Beauchamp explaining the sunk cost fallacy during FEED studies for Project Cormorant. There is no real-time dialogue.2:39–8:22 · The hosts pushing back 0/10 Introduction to The Green Blueprints and Eight Rivers Host sets up the historical narrative and company thesis behind Eight Rivers and the Allam-Fetvet cycle, intercut with guest explanations of contrarian physical infrastructure investing.8:23–11:32 · The hosts pushing back 0/10 Project Cormorant and Hydrogen-to-Ammonia Strategy Host asks technical questions regarding the transition from power generation to hydrogen and ammonia production. Guest explains the mechanics of the CO2 convective reformer and why pure hydrogen has weak standalone offtake compared to ammonia.11:32–16:21 · The hosts pushing back 1/10 Offtake Volatility and Navigating Policy Delays Host probes the project finance model and international policy delays in South Korea that stalled the anchor offtake agreement. Guest candidly details the resulting moment of panic and subsequent pivots.16:31–19:54 · The hosts pushing back 1/10 Redesign Optimization and Port Arthur Permitting Host questions guest about permitting snags in Texas despite the business-friendly regulatory climate. Guest explains unexpected local hurdles involving pipeline crossings over streams and wetland classifications.19:55–28:00 · The hosts pushing back 2/10 Engineering Turbines and Partnering with Siemens Energy Host presses on how Eight Rivers structured commercial agreements with major turbine OEMs like Siemens Energy, distinguishing between fee-for-service development and shared risk partnerships.28:01–31:38 · The hosts pushing back 1/10 Supply Chain Diversity and Eight Rivers' Future Vision Host asks guest to analyze NetPower's separate turbine partnership with Baker Hughes and closes with Eight Rivers' long-term commercial goals.

speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%0:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%18:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%18:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%21:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%21:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%24:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%24:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%27:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%27:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%30:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%30:00 · the hosts 0% · guest 100%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 25:00 Reframing OEM Skepticism on Efficiency

Damien describes pushing back against legacy turbine OEM mindsets that dismissed low-carbon supercritical CO2 cycles solely because of thermal efficiency metrics.

Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 26:56 Pressing on OEM Risk Allocation

Laura directly challenges the assumption of a typical startup contract manufacturing arrangement, pressing Damien on whether Eight Rivers paid Siemens or secured true risk-sharing skin in the game.

Biggest teaching moment ▶ 8:39 Explaining the Ammonia Offtake Reality

Damien breaks down the industrial reality that hydrogen for the sake of hydrogen lacks commercial demand, educating on why pairing with ammonia loops is essential for viable offtake.

The host holds their own ▶ 12:48 Probing Project Development Capital Architecture

Laura demonstrates sharp knowledge of project finance structures by drilling down into SPV project entity equity versus parent-level balance sheet development financing.

the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe hosts as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe hosts pushing backWhy
The Sunk Cost Dilemma and Project Cormorant 1000 Introductory narrative segment featuring edited audio clips of Damien Beauchamp explaining the sunk cost fallacy during FEED studies for Project Cormorant. There is no real-time dialogue.
Introduction to The Green Blueprints and Eight Rivers 3210 Host sets up the historical narrative and company thesis behind Eight Rivers and the Allam-Fetvet cycle, intercut with guest explanations of contrarian physical infrastructure investing.
Project Cormorant and Hydrogen-to-Ammonia Strategy 4400 Host asks technical questions regarding the transition from power generation to hydrogen and ammonia production. Guest explains the mechanics of the CO2 convective reformer and why pure hydrogen has weak standalone offtake compared to ammonia.
Offtake Volatility and Navigating Policy Delays 5401 Host probes the project finance model and international policy delays in South Korea that stalled the anchor offtake agreement. Guest candidly details the resulting moment of panic and subsequent pivots.
Redesign Optimization and Port Arthur Permitting 4301 Host questions guest about permitting snags in Texas despite the business-friendly regulatory climate. Guest explains unexpected local hurdles involving pipeline crossings over streams and wetland classifications.
Engineering Turbines and Partnering with Siemens Energy 6512 Host presses on how Eight Rivers structured commercial agreements with major turbine OEMs like Siemens Energy, distinguishing between fee-for-service development and shared risk partnerships.
Supply Chain Diversity and Eight Rivers' Future Vision 4201 Host asks guest to analyze NetPower's separate turbine partnership with Baker Hughes and closes with Eight Rivers' long-term commercial goals.

Statements from this episode (6)

Assertion Supported
Beauchamp: Solar and wind are merely additive to record fossil fuel use
“If you look back to 1800, even biomass today is used more than it was in the 1800. Oil is used more. Gas, coal, everything is used more. And solar and wind were simply additive.”
Damien Beauchamp Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 4:50
Insight
Beauchamp: Pure hydrogen production fails without a co-located industrial consumer
“The hydrogen, for the sake of hydrogen, doesn't seem to be working. You need to have something that's consuming hydrogen, and you hear a lot of people talk about, you know, the future hydrogen market.”
Damien Beauchamp Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 9:42
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Beauchamp: 8 Rivers has secured 18% offtake for Project Cormorant
“You know, the project is structured to produce 900,000 tons of ammonia, and we've, we found offtake for about 18% of that 900,000, and we're working on, on getting the rest of that ammonia offtake secured.”
Damien Beauchamp Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 12:31
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Beauchamp: 8 Rivers panicked when SK offtake contract timelines shifted
“There wasn't a firm off-take contract in place, but that moment was one of kind of panic and a feeling of desperation and devastation because of the amount of time, energy, and money that had been put into that particular project because we were trying to do i…”
Damien Beauchamp Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 15:41
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Beauchamp: 8 Rivers is Siemens Energy's largest external partnership in history
“Internal, To Siemens Energy, this is the largest development program they've ever done in their history in partnership with an outside group. So they have over 200 engineers working on this program. I would say about a hundred of those are full-time.”
Damien Beauchamp Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 27:33
What-if
Beauchamp: 8 Rivers needs $100M to reach FID on two major projects
“With that hundred million, we would achieve FID on both Cormorant and one of our AFCC projects that we've announced with ENTEC or Pacific Corp. So with that, we would achieve FID and break ground on both of those projects.”
Damien Beauchamp Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 31:10
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