The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 79 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Collison: High-Agency People Will Win From AI Advances, Low-Agency Will Lose
“My biggest takeaway from all this Has been that around agency where I feel like high agency people are the winners of the advances in AI and within organizations, low agency people will lose out.”
Collison: High-agency, non-expert engineers are ascendant at Stripe thanks to AI
“High work ethic people. Who maybe weren't the best engineers you know, previously or now, those people are massively ascendant, as far as I can tell, because they suddenly got the exoskeleton, you know, and like, they always have the ideas as to what we should…”
Collison: Stablecoin issuers will buy large amounts of US debt and strengthen dollar
“Stablecoin issuers will, in a similar way, be large buyers of U.S. Debt and create more dollar strength.”
Collison: GDPR reduced profits for small European tech firms by up to 12%
“GDPR alone is estimated to have reduced profits for small tech firms in Europe by up to 12%.”
Collison: Agents will likely drive most internet transactions soon
“In our view, agents will most likely soon be responsible for most internet transactions, and will likely need blockchains that support more than a million, or maybe even more than a billion, transactions a second.”
Crypto transactions will soon be a large part of Stripe's business
“Crypto enabled transactions are going to be a very large part of the economy and just stripes business in the relatively near future.”
Stablecoins will grow 100x from their current scale, predicts John Collison
“People still have no idea how big stable coins are going to be. And I think they discount us because it feels like it's a lot of hype right now, but we're going to look back when stable coins are a hundred times bigger and just think of this moment as so cute.”
Collison: AI platforms will become the new aggregation layer, disrupting legacy aggregators
“It feels like step one is, that's going to happen with agentic commerce is, I feel like existing aggregators, if just aggregation is their raison d'etre, then they're going to have a lot of, ah, questions that they need to answer, because ChatGPT and the AI ap…”
Collison: Stablecoin checkout is a few years from mass-market adoption
“I think there'll be something similar with stable coins where they'll be offered at the point of checkout way before people Become super familiar with them, but we're probably only a small number of years away from some mass market.”
Stripe processes $1.4 trillion in 2024 payment volume, up 38%
“Businesses on Stripe generated 1.4 trillion in total payment volume in 2024, up 38% from the prior year and reaching a scale equivalent to around 1.3% of global GDP.”
Collison: 2025 AI agent startup launches on Stripe will eclipse 2024's 700+
“More than 700 AI agent startups launched on Stripe last year, a figure that we expect will be substantially eclipsed by the total in 2025.”
Collison: Stripe reached $1.9T in volume in 2025, up 34%
“Last year, businesses running on Stripe generated 1.9 trillion in total volume, up 34% from 24, an equivalent to roughly 1.6% of global GDP.”
Collison: Tech and data center capex drove nearly half of 2025 US GDP growth
“Economy-wide, demand for software, computers, and data center investment drove nearly half of all U.S. GDP growth in 2025, and will likely soon be a majority of all U.S. Growth.”
Collison: Startups reaching $10M ARR in 3 months doubled in Stripe's 2025 cohort
“The number of companies reaching ten million in ARR within three months of launch was double that of the 24 cohort.”
Collison: 2025 stablecoin payment volume doubled to $400B, 60% B2B
“In 25, the price of Bitcoin dropped precipitously and is now 50% down from October, but stablecoin payments volume doubled to around 400,000,000,060 percent of which is estimated to represent B to B payments.”
Collison: Klarna is the first bank to launch a stablecoin on Tempo
“Klarna, whose CEO was once a self-proclaimed crypto skeptic, became the first bank to launch a stablecoin, Klarna USD, on the Tempo testnet, using Bridge's open issuance to facilitate faster and cheaper cross-border settlement.”
Collison: US small business loan approvals fell to 41% in 2025
“Only 41% of small business loan applications were approved in the US last year, down from 50% in 2015.”
Collison: Stripe Capital recipients grew 27 percentage points faster over one year
“Businesses that received and accepted capital offers grew, on average, 27 percentage points faster over the following year than the otherwise equivalent businesses who didn't.”
Collison: AI agents will probably eliminate distinctions between customer service and SDR roles
“Maybe what we're describing is a bunch of swim lanes Have been established by random accidents of software and org charts and everything like that. You do customer service. When people come with a query as of a non-commercial nature, you are an SDR. You know, …”
Collison: Elon Musk's companies have historically been unusually capital-efficient
“Elon's companies have always been very capital efficient and like build a bad one and then build a good one. And so the boring company bought a commercial tunnel boring machine before they started developing their own. Tesla had the master plan where they buil…”
Collison: Stripe is shipping 30 percent more code thanks to AI tooling
“I think at Stripe we, ah, we're, we found we're shipping 30% more code.”
Collison: Every AI product will need subscriptions plus overage payments
“I think every AI product will need, you know, they probably want to have some all you can eat, most of what you can eat, subscription with limits, and then the ability to pay for overages.”
Collison: Sportsbooks take ~10% whereas prediction markets take ~1%
“The rate for sports betting companies is around 10%, and the order of magnitude for prediction markets is, you know, one percent or a few points.”
Collison: Mainstream AI chat interfaces still lack persistent memory in 2026
“Still in twenty-twenty-six, if you open a new Gemini chat, or if you open a new ChatGPG chat, it's basically a blank slate. There's no memory.”
Stripe's revenue and finance automation suite reaches $500M run rate
“Stripe's revenue and finance automation suite, with billing at its core, has now passed a five hundred million dollar revenue run rate.”
Half of Fortune 100 and one-sixth of new Delaware corporations use Stripe
“From top corporate leaders, half of the Fortune 100 uses Stripe. To hyper-growth companies, we count 80% of the Forbes Cloud 178% of the Forbes AI-fifty as customers. To newly formed upstarts, one in six new Delaware corporations incorporates with Stripe Atlas…”
Stripe-processed revenue is growing seven times faster than S&P 500
“In aggregate, the revenue that businesses process on Stripe is growing seven times faster than that of all companies in the S&P 500.”
Collison: Cursor reached over $100M ARR in just three years
“Cursor, the AI-powered coding assistant, raced to over one hundred million dollars in recurring revenue in just three years.”
Collison: Lovable hit $17M ARR in 3 months, Bolt $20M ARR in 2 months
“We're also seeing the likes of Lovable, which hit seventeen million dollars ARR in just three months, Bolt, achieving twenty million ARR in two months, and Kodo, radically lower the barrier for turning software ideas into working applications.”
Collison: 60% of US small businesses use vertical SaaS platforms
“Today, 60% of all small businesses in America use vertical SaaS platforms to help run their business.”
Collison: Stripe has seen over 92% of processed credit cards before
“When a credit card is used for a payment, there is a greater than 92% chance that Stripe has encountered the same card before.”
Collison: SpaceX uses Bridge for Starlink fund repatriation in emerging markets
“SpaceX uses Bridge to repatriate funds from Starlink sales in Argentina, Nigeria, and other markets.”
Collison: Stablecoin volumes doubled year-over-year as active wallets hit 40M
“Stablecoin transaction volumes more than doubled between Q four, 20, 23 and Q four, 20, 24. And the number of monthly active stablecoin wallets has now reached forty million.”
Collison: An estimated 99% of stablecoin balances are USD-based
“We further note with interest that despite regulatory uncertainty in the United States, early stablecoin adoption has shown a notable US dollar preference, with an estimated 99% of stablecoin balances being USD-based.”
Collison: US productivity reached $104/hr versus $85/hr in Europe
“While the economies of the US and Europe were similarly productive in 1990, there has since been a stark divergence, with US productivity per hour works reaching 104 dollars, as compared with a plateau of something closer to 85 dollars per hour in Europe.”
Collison: Stripe powers over 5M businesses, 90% of Dow Jones
“Our programmable financial services now power more than five million businesses directly or via platforms, including all the top AI companies, many of the largest blue chip companies, 90% of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, most of the biggest tech companies,…”
Collison: 25% of Delaware corporations are formed via Stripe Atlas
“25% of all Delaware corporations are now created with Stripe Atlas.”
Collison: Stripe remained robustly profitable throughout 2025
“Stripe remained robustly profitable in 25, allowing us to continue investing heavily in product development, with over 350 product updates over the last year, as well as acquisitions.”
Collison: Stripe's revenue suite on track to hit $1B ARR
“Metronome joins our revenue suite, comprising Stripe billing, invoicing, tax, and more, Which is on track to hit an annual run rate of a billion dollars this year.”
Collison: Most profitable third of US public companies holds two-thirds of market cap
“Today, the most profitable third of publicly listed companies in the United States accounts for two-thirds of the total market capitalization, the highest share since data began in 1963.”
Collison: GitHub pushes jumped 41% between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025
“Pushes to GitHub, which grew roughly 10 to 12% in prior years, jumped 41%. Between Q. Three, 24 and Q. Three, 25.”
Collison: 30% of Stripe cross-border revenue is outside top 10 economies
“Of businesses on stride that earn most of their revenue internationally, 30% of that revenue comes from countries that are neither their home market nor one of the top 10 global economies.”
Collison: Gamma's Indian revenue jumped 22% after adding UPI payments
“Gamma is a California-based AI platform used by seventy million people to create presentations. When they joined the first cohort of Stripe users to accept UPI payments in India, their Indian revenue jumped 22% in that very same month.”
Collison: Stripe-acquired Bridge saw stablecoin volume more than quadruple
“Bridge, the stablecoin orchestration platform we acquired, saw volume more than quadruple.”
Collison: Microsoft routes more payment volume to Stripe after auth rate gains
“Between June and October, Stripe delivered a meaningful increase in authorization rates for Microsoft using a combination of adaptive acceptance, card account updater, network tokens, and more. As a result, Microsoft is now routing a larger share of its paymen…”
Collison: Local payment rails like BLIK and Pix boost conversions up to 46%
“Presenting Blick to your customers in Poland drives an average 46% increase in checkout conversion. Offering Pix does the same in Brazil with a 31% average conversion uplift.”