The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pope predicts supply crunches across the entire AI hardware supply chain
“The supply chain we're gonna have crunches on, on all of the supply chain, really. So if you look at the, sort of, the big components of what any company, but like us, for example, build-out there is dependency on Logic Dies from typically TSMC, maybe Samsung,…”
Reiner Pope Feb 26, 2026 ▶ 18:54 Reiner Pope of MatX on accelerating AI with transformer-optimized chips
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Ben Thompson: The semiconductor market will have excess memory capacity soon
“We're going to believe it or not. We are going to have too much memory capacity in a few years because we have such a shortage right now.”
Ben Thompson Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 1:07:56 Ben Thompson from Stratechery on AI ads, the end of SaaS, and the future of media
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