why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Scaringe: Rivian is the best-selling SUV overall in California and Washington
“Interestingly, in California and the state of Washington, we have the best-selling SUV, electric or not electric, in California and the state of Washington.”
Assertion Contradicted
Scaringe: Every automaker except Rivian and Tesla relies on 50-150 computers
“And so, with the exception of two companies, Rivian and Tesla, every car on the road has, depending on the amount of content, anywhere from 50 to maybe a 150 little computers that run the car.”
Assertion Supported
Scaringe: Rivian captures 35% US market share in premium electric SUVs
“If you draw the boundary diagram around electric premium vehicles, so like premium SUVs that are over 70,000 dollars, we're by far the best-selling vehicle in that class of vehicles, so we have about 35% market share as we draw that boundary diagram”
Assertion Supported
Scaringe: LiDAR sensor costs dropped from $75,000 to $200
“Six, seven years ago a LiDAR was 20,000 dollars. 15 years ago LiDAR was 75,000 dollars. Today a LiDAR is like 200 bucks. So it's a very low cost sensor.”
Assertion Supported
Scaringe: Rivian reached positive gross margin in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025
“And so finally end of 24, beginning of 25, we started to hit positive gross margin. So, Q-four of 24, Q-one of 25, positive gross margin.”
Assertion Contradicted
Scaringe: Only Rivian and Tesla sell cars without dealership middle layers
“With the exception of us and Tesla, every manufacturer today sells through distributors, and distributors then on to dealers, or in a few cases, direct to dealers. But nonetheless, there's a middle layer.”
Assertion Supported
Scaringe: Rivian, Tesla, and Waymo align on large foundation models
“I think first is I'd say there's alignment amongst Rivian, Tesla, Waymo around the use of AI to train. And so the view that you're building a large scale foundation model, multi-billion parameter model, you're building that with the data flywheel of the vehicl…”
Assertion Supported
Scaringe: Rivian's new quad-motor vehicles feature an extreme torque-vectoring 'kick steer'
“The new quad, we brought back this, we call kick steer feature, where we can use the fact that there's four motors in the quad, in the four motor version, to introduce, you know, torque vectoring to an extreme degree, where you can, like, pivot.”
Assertion Partly supported
Scaringe: Rivian Gen 2 reduces vehicle compute controllers from 17 to three
“And then with gen two, we went from 17 down to three. And so now we have a, what we call an east zone controller, a west zone controller, and a south zone controller.”
Assertion Supported
Scaringe: Tesla holds 50% US EV share while EVs make up 8% of sales
“You know, the best measure of, I think the under investment in this space and the lack of highly compelling product is that there's a single company, Tesla, that still has around 50% market share in the United States. The United States is at around eight perce…”
Assertion Partly supported
Scaringe: Rivian led Consumer Reports satisfaction rankings two years running
“And so at our first year of production with our first product we've ever produced, we came out by far number one on that, which was amazing. And in our second year, we came out by far number one. So like the closest we were beat the next closest by like 15 poi…”