why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Ricks: Insurers initially refused to cover Eli Lilly's discounted generic insulin
“In the first year, no formularies covered this. So it was really only for that cash payer. No insurance company picked it up, even though it was dramatically cheaper. Now it's about half of the volume, but still half not because that model of this margin sprea…”
Prediction Held up
Ricks: Eli Lilly's chronic knee pain study is going to work
“We have a study reading out toward the end of this year in chronic knee pain. It's going to work.”
Assertion Partly supported
Ricks: Lilly's net insulin price stayed near $30 despite $275 list price
“Our actual net on insulin really hasn't changed. It's like 30 or 40 dollars, but the list price got up to two 75.”
Prediction Partly held up
Ricks: Taltz plus Zepbound trial is certain to boost psoriasis efficacy
“So we're doing a study with our psoriasis drug, Taltz, and ZepBound. That will read out this fall. And I'm certain we'll show a boost in efficacy with the weight loss.”
Assertion Supported
Ricks: Self-pay Zepbound is the #1 prescribed form of GLP-1s
“Actually, the number one prescribed form of these medications is Zep-bound self-buy. We sell more than that than our insured business, a new patient starts, and more than all of we go.”
Assertion Partly supported
Ricks: Eli Lilly captures 70-75% of new US GLP-1 starts
“Right now in the US, across all forms of GLP-ONE, on new patient capture, we're basically 70, 75% right now.”
Prediction Held up
Ricks: Current GLP-1 drug pricing will fall amid competition and pressure
“And the current pricing isn't going to stay. Let's be honest. There'll be more competition. The government wants to lower our prices.”
Assertion Supported
Ricks: Lilly will spend nearly 25% of revenue on R&D this year
“We'll spend almost 25% of sales this year.
John Collison: I liked your way of putting us that you spend more on medical R&D than Germany does.
Dave Ricks: Yes.
Dave Ricks: Yeah.
Dave Ricks: We're at the nation state level. It'll be, you know, fourteen billion …”
Assertion Partly supported
Ricks: Eli Lilly is growing revenue at 40% year-to-date
“40 year to date.”
Assertion Supported
Ricks: Lilly's 400-person San Diego hub produced one-third of its medicines
“We built a monoclonal antibody biotech hub there. It's produced like a third of the medicines we've made since we started. Hugely successful. There's 400 employees.”
Assertion Supported
Ricks: Tirzepatide's US patent extends into the late 2030s
“I think Terseptide's U.S. Patent is late thirties or foregrip on the oral beyond that.”
Assertion Supported
Ricks: Lilly R&D spend is growing ~20% while headcount grows single digits
“So we're growing R&D high teens, early low twenties. We're growing headcount in R&D single digits.”
Assertion Supported
Ricks: Lilly has had 11 CEOs in 150 years, only one external
“We've had a 150 years of that, and I'm the 11th CEO of the company. That's one less than Pope's in that period of time. So that's, it was a special honor, actually, and it's not a lifetime appointment. I can be fired any day, but the first four were family mem…”