The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 25 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ricks: Insurers initially refused to cover Eli Lilly's discounted generic insulin
“In the first year, no formularies covered this. So it was really only for that cash payer. No insurance company picked it up, even though it was dramatically cheaper. Now it's about half of the volume, but still half not because that model of this margin sprea…”
Ricks: Eli Lilly's chronic knee pain study is going to work
“We have a study reading out toward the end of this year in chronic knee pain. It's going to work.”
Ricks: Expensive cardiovascular trial mandates protect GLP-1 incumbents from low-cost competition
“Now, by happy accident, we are all now really pleased with, like, incretins, like our trisepetide to run them because they frequently demonstrate massive benefit. Uncardiovascular. And in some ways, it creates a barrier to entry for the next low-cost Chinese p…”
Ricks: Pharma must invest 20-25% of revenue in R&D for double-digit growth
“I have a belief that if you're not generating, to generate double digit growth in the sector, you need to invest at 20 to 25% of sales in R&D. That's sort of a good, a positive return R&D stack.”
Ricks: Lilly is considering SaaS-style recurring pricing for common gene therapies
“It's conceivable that one could create like a licensing concept, stealing from the SAS model, where you say, we'll do the procedure for free. And as long as it's working for you will deposit X amount in our bank account, and you're getting the value, and we're…”
Ricks: Lilly's net insulin price stayed near $30 despite $275 list price
“Our actual net on insulin really hasn't changed. It's like 30 or 40 dollars, but the list price got up to two 75.”
Ricks: Taltz plus Zepbound trial is certain to boost psoriasis efficacy
“So we're doing a study with our psoriasis drug, Taltz, and ZepBound. That will read out this fall. And I'm certain we'll show a boost in efficacy with the weight loss.”
Ricks: Self-pay Zepbound is the #1 prescribed form of GLP-1s
“Actually, the number one prescribed form of these medications is Zep-bound self-buy. We sell more than that than our insured business, a new patient starts, and more than all of we go.”
Ricks: Eli Lilly is building pharma's largest biological supercomputer
“Building a supercomputer on our, on-prem for us, really just to run proprietary drug discovery models. We think it's the biggest biologically focused supercomputer there is. And certainly the biggest pharma's done. Yes. With B 300 latest chipset.”
Ricks: Eli Lilly captures 70-75% of new US GLP-1 starts
“Right now in the US, across all forms of GLP-ONE, on new patient capture, we're basically 70, 75% right now.”
Ricks: Current GLP-1 drug pricing will fall amid competition and pressure
“And the current pricing isn't going to stay. Let's be honest. There'll be more competition. The government wants to lower our prices.”
Ricks: Lilly conducts early clinical trials faster and cheaper than any biotech
“There is no doubt in my mind. We are faster, more robust, probably cheaper than actually every biotech out there trying to do their own early phase clinical trials.”
Ricks: LillyDirect annualizes in billions as largest online prescription platform
“Today we'll annualize, you know, in the billions of dollars. I think it's the largest Prescription platform online in terms of revenue. We run it on Stripe, I think, and going north from here.”
Ricks: Lilly will spend nearly 25% of revenue on R&D this year
“We'll spend almost 25% of sales this year.
John Collison: I liked your way of putting us that you spend more on medical R&D than Germany does.
Dave Ricks: Yes.
Dave Ricks: Yeah.
Dave Ricks: We're at the nation state level. It'll be, you know, fourteen billion …”
Ricks: Marketing halves medical adoption time from 16 to eight years
“And there's been studies on this of medical inventions that are not promoted... It's about a sixteen-year path to full adoption. With the medicine promoted, it's half that. We have an internal goal to half that again, to get to four years, to full whatever it …”
Ricks: Eli Lilly is developing a one-time PCSK9 gene editing medicine
“We have a medicine development that will Knock down your LDL, if it's safe enough, and then one undone, PCSK nine edit in your liver, and presumably that will last the rest of your life, and your LDLs will be between 20 and 40 forever.”
Ricks: Lilly has small molecule and siRNA Lp(a) drugs in Phase 3
“Like we talked about LP a earlier. That was the case there. We discarded the antibody. There is one that's been developed. And we went after the small molecule and the siRNA. They're both in phase three.”
Ricks: Extending human lifespans inherently increases total disease burden
“You know, there's no limit to human disease, and actually the longer we help people live, the more disease they'll be.”
Ricks: Lilly's 400-person San Diego hub produced one-third of its medicines
“We built a monoclonal antibody biotech hub there. It's produced like a third of the medicines we've made since we started. Hugely successful. There's 400 employees.”
Ricks: Tirzepatide's US patent extends into the late 2030s
“I think Terseptide's U.S. Patent is late thirties or foregrip on the oral beyond that.”
Ricks: Lilly R&D spend is growing ~20% while headcount grows single digits
“So we're growing R&D high teens, early low twenties. We're growing headcount in R&D single digits.”
Ricks: 70% of Eli Lilly's ad budget is off linear TV
“70% of our spend now is not on linear TV. So most of the advertising is more served up and in your search sequence, and increasingly we're interested in like, generative AI optimization.”
Ricks: Lilly executives have a rule to never decide in one meeting
“We actually have a rule to like never decide in one meeting.”
Ricks: Lilly has had 11 CEOs in 150 years, only one external
“We've had a 150 years of that, and I'm the 11th CEO of the company. That's one less than Pope's in that period of time. So that's, it was a special honor, actually, and it's not a lifetime appointment. I can be fired any day, but the first four were family mem…”