The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
China can sustain 5% to 6% growth without infrastructure spending
“That part of GDP is actually growing quite robustly and will continue to grow, I think, for another at least five to seven years, maybe even 10, but also not forever. And because that's growing at almost 10% a year now, and it's about half of the Chinese econo…”
Commercial investment risk models rarely use data older than ten years
“Almost no one has risk models that use data that goes back further than 10 years, let alone 20 or 30.”
Masters: China's savings rate will drop rapidly as demographics mirror Japan
“China's Demographics are rapidly shifting from very healthy, as in, you know, a lot of working age people, to very Japanese-like, and as that occurs, you're going to get the same problems you had in Japan. Savings rates are going to start really dropping very …”
Sanford C. Bernstein trailed the market by 2,000 basis points in 1990
“Bernstein, this was in in 1990, was facing terrible headwinds from the markets. 9090 was a really difficult year for most active managers, but especially if you were a value investor, the numbers looked horrible for Bernstein as a firm. It was you know, it was…”