why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Dawn: PE secondary market volume in 2024 will top $130 billion record
“2021, which is a high watermark up to this point is about one 30. And I suspect we will beat that number this year.”
Assertion Supported
Dawn: Private equity distributions to AUM are near historic lows
“In this environment where distributions have almost been at historic lows compared to assets under management”
Assertion Supported
Buyout secondaries trade in the nineties while venture trades at 60-80 cents
“Good quality buyouts, probably in the nineties. Venture and growth, very much name specific. So some managers still very difficult to access. So you pay an access premium, but probably more like 60 to 80 cents on the dollar because there's a little bit of skep…”
Assertion Supported
Dawn: Single-company GP-led secondaries usually transact around NAV
“Generally on the GP side, That on a single company, it usually transacts around the GP's NAV. Typically not at a discount, but if it is, it's at a modest discount.”
Assertion Supported
Dawn: Traditional buyout managers are launching single-asset continuation secondary funds
“What we're seeing right now, I would say a fairly new development is traditional buyout managers actually looking to set up their own secondary funds, just focused on investing in single asset continuation funds.”
Assertion Supported
Dawn: Private credit secondaries are currently trading in the nineties
“In the current market, private credit is probably trading in the nineties.”
Assertion Supported
Dawn: Most private equity GPs exit portfolios at a 25% NAV premium
“Most GPs exit their portfolios around 25% premium to their NAV.”
Prediction Held up
Dawn: 10 to 20 GP-focused secondary funds will launch in next two years
“It wouldn't be surprised in the next couple of years, there's 10 to 20 new secondary funds focused on the GP side.”
Assertion Supported
Dawn: 40% to 50% of Early Secondaries Flow Came From Banks
“Also, maybe 40 to 50% of the flow in the market was actually bank selling similar to UBS.”
Assertion Supported
Dawn: Continuation fund transactions represented around 10% of exits in 2023
“Sponsor to continuation fund channel, which was around 10% of exits last year.”
Assertion Supported
Dawn: $20B in Single-Asset Continuation Funds Closed Last Year
“And there was about twenty billion dollars of single asset continuation funds done last year out of fifty billion dollars of GP driven transactions executed.”
Assertion Supported
Dawn: Secondary market accounts for roughly 2% of outstanding AUM
“The secondary market is around two percent of outstanding AUM.”