The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 35 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Milken: Historical bond data showed credit risk premiums exceeded actual default risk
“What everyone said about credit was wrong, and there was a book by Bradford Hittman on long-term Corporate bond and investor experience, and the riskiest credits were perceived as the best, and the best credits were perceived as the worst. Whether you were the…”
Milken: There is fundamentally no difference between private and public credit
“Many people try to separate this, but to me, there's no difference between private credit, public credit, term loans, etc.”
Milken: Non-investment grade debt has outperformed higher-rated debt and equities
“Going back particularly to the work that I had done in the sixties, so we're 60 years later now, the rates of return have been significant and have exceeded higher rate of debt and often equity rates of return.”
Milken: US human capital is worth roughly $1,500 trillion
“And the human capital in the United States, if it had to be measured, I would say it would be around 1500 trillion. So we're talking 60 to 70 times the GDP of the country.”
Milken: Nobody Generates High Long-Term Returns by Guessing Interest Rates
“Second, I really have never met a person over a long period of time who's generated a high rate of return by guessing where interest rates are going. So yes, you're right once. Yes, you're right twice, but not in the long run.”
Milken: Over 50% of Economic Growth in Past 200 Years Stems From Public Health
“Most people don't realize when I'm there that the number one driver of economic growth in the last 200 years is public health and medical research, and so more than 50% of all economic growth can be attached to public health and medical research.”
Milken: 77% of US AI PhD Students Are Foreign-Born
“50% of every software engineer or scientist in Silicon Valley in the last 30 or 40 years was not born in the United States.
60% of many of our medical research not born in the United States.
77% of everyone in PhD programs in AI not born in the United States.”
Milken: Shunning the press early in my career changed financial history
“Had we been more public, had I gone on television more, or done more interviews, and I declined them all, it would have been different, and I think the course of history would have been different”
Milken: Dodgers' discounted TV rights exceeded team's entire purchase price
“If you look at one of the greatest purchases in sports, the Los Angeles Dodgers, for example, they were able to securitize The media stream from an investment grade company, in that case, it was Time Warner Cable, today Charter, for the next 30 years that paid…”
Milken: M&A bankers face misaligned incentives versus long-term investors
“So with an investment banking firm, you have a merger and acquisitions department. They get paid when you do a transaction. So often the people that are the best is getting people to do things so they can get them to do things. And I would often ask them, have…”
Milken: Human resources managers will increasingly become corporate CEOs
“I think you're going to find many of the people that were the head human resource manager eventually goes to become CEOs.”
Milken: Private equity owns nearly 50% of America's 20,000 largest companies
“Almost 50% of the 20,000 largest companies in America are owned by private equity.”
Milken: Rising Rates Will Force Debt-for-Equity Restructurings in Coming Years
“And so we're going to see in the next few years opportunities to exchange debt for equity and recapitalize good companies and good industries.”
Milken: Three US companies are AAA, but S&P rated 15,000 structures AAA
“There's maybe three companies in America that are rated triple A. S and P rated in a period of time, 15,000 structures, triple A, almost all of them real estate. And in some cases you lost 100% of your money in a triple A.”
Milken: The best investor is a social scientist
“So I think if you're a good investor, the very first speech I gave on Wall Street in the late sixties was the best investor was a social scientist. And if you ask me again today, I would tell you the best investor is a social scientist, understanding where the…”
Milken: CRISPR therapies will be approved and eliminate sickle cell disease
“Sickle cell anemia and other things using CRISPR is going to be approved. You're going to eliminate this disease. Eliminate it.”
Milken: Most people hold strong opinions without conducting factual research
“A lot of times you find in education, that your teachers aren't necessarily current on facts, and so you can surprise them, and you know, at a very young age, I had concluded that adults had strong opinions, but very few of them ever did research, and if you a…”
Milken: Financial firms must make research, not sales, their foundation
“And so my view as the foundation of the firm was research, and we needed to invert the pyramid where research is the foundation of financial investing and advising, then trading, and then if you can trade it and buy it, you can work on selling it.”
Milken: Non-investment grade debt returned 100% unleveraged in 1974
“And so at the end of 74, if you bought a portfolio of non-investment grade debt, by the end of 74, you made 100% on your money, unleveraged.”
Milken: Nifty 50 stocks lost 90% inflation-adjusted over a decade
“Adjusted for inflation, you lost 90% of your money in the next decade.”
Milken: I interviewed job candidates at 4:00 AM to test commitment
“So I often, when I interviewed people, would tell them to meet me at four in the morning or four 30 in the morning. Just to see whether they really wanted it.”
Milken: 72 private equity firms are headed by former Drexel colleagues
“I think there's 72 private equity firms now headed by people that work with me.”
Milken: Rating Agency Ratings Are Trailing Indicators, Not Forward-Looking
“Three, rating agency ratings are a trailing measure, not a forward-looking measure.”
Milken: In 10 years patients will name diseases by mutation, not organ
“And my guess is in 10 years, a person will say, I have an XYZ mutation. They're not gonna say, I have this disease that's been identified in a part of my body.”
Milken: US Added Decade of Schooling by 1960, Now Ranks 31st
“Between 1870 and 1960,
The United States added one year of formal schooling every decade, and by 1960, the U.S. Was the most educated country in the world by two years more than any other country.
Since then, other countries have caught us and passed it, and s…”
Milken: Increased weight costs the United States $1.5 trillion annually
“We did a study back as far as 20 years ago showing that just the change in weight in America cost the country one and a half trillion a year.”
Milken: Drexel eventually made markets in 7,000 different securities
“So you had to be a market maker, and we eventually made markets in 7000 different securities.”
Milken: Roughly 99.5% of companies worldwide are non-investment grade
“99.5 or something of all the companies in the world are non-investment grade debt companies. Very few are investment grade”
Milken: Annual births in China fell 60% to under 10 million
“But second, they've gone from having 23 to twenty-five million children born a year to less than 10. So they've had a 60% reduction in the number of children born.”
Milken: Lockheed's 15-cent debt never missed a principal or interest payment
“And the company eventually survived and built, and the debt that traded at 15 cents on dollar never missed an interest or a principal payment, and today, I believe, is the largest government contractor.”
Milken: Tesla Lacked an Investment-Grade Rating Even Near a $1T Market Cap
“Tesla was not investment grade that even it was approaching a trillion dollars in market cap.”
Milken: Moderna dosed first human 63 days after virus sequencing
“It was only seven weeks, 63 days, between the sequencing of the DNA of the virus and the first human being that Moderna gave the vaccine to”
Milken: Focused ultrasound is approved for 50 to 60 diseases
“But it's now been approved for 50 or 60 diseases. I have a good friend who had terrible tremors all these years. He went in. When he walked out, he had no tremors. So there's enormous potential. It's been approved for Parkinson's and other diseases.”