why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Friedman estimates Opportunity Zones will increase US GDP by 0.4%
“We estimate it'll increase GDP by four-tenths of percent.”
Prediction Held up
Friedman: The US will experience real wage inflation
“One view that is completely different from other people is I believe there will be real wage inflation in this country.”
Assertion Contradicted
Friedman: Port of Savannah is North America's fastest-growing port and 12% of GDP
“Savannah's the fastest growing port in North America. Period. No one's ever seen anything like it. It's now 12% of the GDP of the United States.”
Assertion Contradicted
Friedman: New Markets Tax Credit costs $200 to deliver $100
“Only to come up with a hundred dollars, it costs the government 200 dollars. It's a joke. It costs more to administer it, to put it together Then the net effect.”
Prediction Held up
Friedman: US fiscal stimulus will cause big-city unskilled labor shortages
“Once you see the effect of these things, it's even gonna create in cities, in big cities, a, what we call an unskilled labor shortage.”
Assertion Contradicted
Friedman: Google Is Moving 20,000 AI Employees to Lower Manhattan
“Google is just moving 20,000 AI people to the tip of New York. Now, some of it's not an opportunity zone, but it's surrounded by three opportunity zones.”
Assertion Partly supported
Friedman: Fannie and Freddie represented two-thirds of US GDP during 2008 crisis
“Fannie and Freddie were 10 times bigger than Lehman, yet it didn't have any knockoff impact. It was two-thirds of the GDP of the entire United States, Fannie and Freddie at the time.”
Prediction Held up
Friedman: The 5,000 small US banks will undergo widespread industry consolidation
“There's 5000 small banks in the United States that small banks from a general viewpoint are going to go through a consolidation.”
Assertion Partly supported
Opportunity Zones cover 10% of U.S. land and 12% of population
“So in fact, it's 10% of the entire United States is an opportunity zone. That's in every city, every state, every rural area, all of Puerto Rico. So it's everywhere. That's the first thing, and it covers 12% of the population.”
Assertion Partly supported
Friedman: Micron Is Building a $3B Plant in Manassas Opportunity Zone
“Micron's building a plan in Manassas, three billion dollars, opportunity zone.”
Assertion Contradicted
Friedman: Amazon HQ2 in Northern Virginia Is Partially in an Opportunity Zone
“Amazon's second headquarters is partially an opportunity zone in northern Virginia.”
Assertion Supported
Friedman: State pension funds are exploring partnering on Opportunity Zones
“So we're already seeing non-taxpayers, state pension funds, begin to look at this as a way to change areas that are in need by joining with the people doing opportunity zones.”
Assertion Supported
Friedman: Sean Parker originated Opportunity Zone policy via EIG
“Sean Parker from Napster came up with this idea seven, eight years ago, and is really the Key driver. This is one of his think tanks”
Prediction Held up
Friedman: Regulators Will Release Follow-up Rules Followed by Anti-Abuse Guidance
“There will be another set of regulations that will allow people to really be aggressively doing things, and then there'll be abuse regulations, because whenever you create a program of a trillion dollars or more, it's only natural that there'll be abuses, and …”
Assertion Supported
Friedman: Houston Oil & Gas went 10x in months on gas discovery
“I had begun to look at oil and gas stocks, and one of my big recommendations was Houston Oil and Gas, which went from 10 to a 110 in a period of maybe Four months because it was at a big, gigantic gas discovery in what we called then the state waters. State wa…”
Assertion Supported
Friedman: US has up to $6T in unrealized capital gains
“There's a trillion dollars of gains a year in capital gains in this country. There's probably three, four, five, six trillion dollars that are capital gains that people haven't taken.”
Assertion Partly supported
Friedman: New York capital gains taxes reach 53% short-term, 32% long-term
“In New York, it's 53% on short-term capital gains. It's 32 on long-term capital gains”