The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Wolfe: Venture Returns and LP Cash Distributions Will Slow or Turn Negative
“Eventually the great things that we've seen over the past few years, which are exceptional returns, not just unrealized, but realized and returned and distributed cash to LPs is going to either slow down or reverse and potentially be negative, which is somethi…”
Wolfe predicts a massive pullback in institutional LP allocations to venture capital
“Private equity generally, of which venture capital is like, you know, the tiny bit that's generally clustered into that ass glass, I think is going to see a huge pullback in at least new allocations, if not the pace of allocations.”
Wolfe: WeWork will face severe downside operating leverage when economic conditions contract
“The operating leverage that those businesses, by the way, get on the upside is huge. But once you have this precipitous pruning and these people start disappearing, I think the operating leverage that you get on the downside is going to be really painful. And …”
Wolfe: OpenAI Generates Roughly $13B, 70% from $20/Month Subscribers
“Today, roughly, thirteen billion of revenue at OpenAI. 70% of that revenue is from 20 dollar a month paying subscribers like me.”
Wolfe: Varda Will Launch First Space Manufacturing Mission in Late 2022
“Next year, this time, so it's gonna be a Q-three, Q-four, 20, 22, they will launch the first manufacturing thing in space, and that was wheeled into existence.”
Thomas Reardon single-handedly coded Internet Explorer and was Bill Gates's right-hand
“While he's at Microsoft, he single-handedly codes Internet Explorer, which we've all used, and he's also Bill's right-hand guy during the entire DOJ Monopoly trial.”
Wolfe: Almost Every Stock in ARK Invest Is in Bear Market
“When you look at, like, ARK Invest as one proxy of this, or the Russell 2000, I think all but four or five names in her portfolio, at Cathie Wood's portfolio, are in bear market territory, somewhere between 20% down and 65 or 70% down.”
Wolfe: Sub-$10M ARR Startups Routinely Received Billion-Dollar Valuations
“Remember, you're investing in companies where the new normal has been that a company with five or seven or eight or sub-ten million ARR, annual recurring revenue, is getting a billion-dollar valuation. We used to look at things where it was like one or two or …”
Lux-backed Kurion handled Fukushima cleanup and sold to Veolia for $400M
“We became the only U.S. Company pick for the cleanup, and we went from a million to 2040, 8000, 140. We sold that at forty million of EBITDA 10 times to a big French company, Veolia”
Wolfe: Meta acquired CTRL-labs for slightly under $1 billion
“Coincidentally, Meta bought that for a little under a billion dollars, started by this guy Reardon.”
Wolfe: Carlyle Co-Founder Bill Conway Seeded Lux Capital and Its Management Company
“Bill Conway, who was one of the founders of Carlisle, and he's not really bullish on venture. I mean, Carlisle is, you know, one of the greatest private equity and buy-off funds, But he doesn't love venture capital, but there was something, whether it was the …”