The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Khoury: REIT Price Movements Are Now Double Long Pond's Early Years
“When we launched the fund, the first three years of the fund's existence versus the last three years of the fund's existence, the average move in the REIT space is literally two X today than it was then.”
Khoury: REITs Trading at 125% of Net Asset Value Is Now Normal
“If a REIT traded at 125% of NAV, That was Wall Street Journal News. Today, it's the norm.”
Khoury: Six public real estate companies recently sold to private buyers at large premiums
“The output of that is in the last short period of time, we've seen six public processes for sales of real estate companies to the private market, all of which seem to be happening at Large premiums”
Khoury: Hotel Franchises Grow Earnings 15% Annually While Hotel REITs Stagnate
“These business models, you've got RevPar, you've got net unit growth, then with a little bit of operating and financial leverage and share repurchase, you're growing earnings, 15% a year, compared to the hotel REITs basically growing, not at all, or in some ca…”
Khoury: New Supply Starts for Sunbelt Apartments Dropped 60% to 70%
“So the output of that is in these secularly winning real estate asset classes, Sunbelt departments, industrial, and self-storage, that supply starts are down, depending on market subsectors, 60, 70%.”
Khoury: Office buildings consume 25% to 30% of income in capex
“25, 30% of the income from an office building is going into repairs, maintenance, capital expenditures on a recurring basis.”
Khoury: Real Estate Is the Only S&P Sector Down Since 2022
“You're talking to somebody who's investing in the only GIC sector in the S&P that's still materially down since 22. The GIC and REITs is down almost 20%, while the S&P is up 40. We've now, since the beginning of 22, underperformed the S&P by 60%. I believe the…”
Khoury: 90% of US Real Estate Is Privately Owned
“90% of real estate in this country is owned outside of the public market. So you've got 10% of the market that trades publicly.”
Khoury: Pod shops have grown 4x since Long Pond's founding
“And the pods have grown four X since Long Pond has existed.”
Khoury: Hilton Cash Flow Quadrupled While Park Hotels Declined Post-Spinoff
“Interestingly, both of those companies did two dollars and 19 cents in free cash flow in 2017. This year, Hilton is going to do over nine dollars in free cash flow. Park Hotels is going to do less than the two 19 they did in 2017. Over that time period, Hilton…”
Khoury: Hyatt Shifted from 70% Owned Real Estate to 80% Management Fees
“Hyatt, when they came public, they owned 70% real estate and generated 30% of their income from management franchise. Today, it's 80% management franchise and 20% owned and leased.”
Khoury: In 1999 REITs Traded at 20–25% Discounts to Private Value
“REITs were the antithesis of what anybody wanted to own. So the most impactful thing that I learned at Lazard, having been the grunt guy, running all the models in advance of the CEOs coming in to complain to my managing director why their stocks all traded at…”