The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Grantham: US housing never bubbled nationwide until Greenspan and Bernanke
“The American housing market had famously bubbled in Chicago and bust in California, bubbled in Florida, etc. Never altogether until Greenspan and Bernanke.”
Grantham: Every Two-Sigma Asset Bubble Historically Reverted to Pre-Bubble Trends
“In major countries, there was no exception to the principle that an overpriced market at two sigma, which is just a statistical measure. If you look at the price, you look at the breakout on the upside. If it's two sigma, there is no exception to the rule that…”
Grantham: AI CapEx is larger than any peacetime program in history
“AI Moving at warp speed, involving a greater CapEx program than has ever happened before outside of war.”
Grantham: Greenspan, Summers, and Levitt Blocked CFTC Subprime Regulation
“Greenspan and Summers and Levitt of the SEC waged war against the CFTC doing its job of regulating subprime instruments. They each, in turn, called up Brooksley Bourne, who was the boss, a lady of iron nerve and principle. They harangued her, saying, what are …”
Grantham: China has 300,000 electric buses while the U.S. has 400
“They have 300,000 electric buses, and the U.S. Has 400.”
Grantham: Corporate interest coverage is well above historical averages
“When you look at interest rate coverage, you find that the entire corporate system is in pretty darn good shape, well above average.”
Grantham: U.S. debt multiplied since Greenspan while economic growth slowed
“We entered an era with Greenspan of a fairly decent kink in the cumulative debt curve. It had been drifting up very slowly, and then it started to rise very rapidly since his era. What you notice is that despite the fact that the debt ratio Per unit of GDP has…”
Grantham: Oil dropping to 2.5% of S&P is largest historic sector loss
“Oil as a percentage of the S&P had come down from 25% in 1982 and 16% in oh eight to two and a half percent yesterday. This is the biggest loss of value in the history of the major groups of the S&P that goes all the way back into the 20.”
Grantham: Real U.S. hourly wages have stagnated since the mid-1970s
“Workers, Which in the U.S. Have not had a real increase per hour work since the mid-nineteen seventies, can you believe, where even dopey Europe has more than doubled, and China and Vietnam has more than ten-tupled, and so on.”
Grantham: In the Great Depression, value stocks went bust while quality survived
“What people found in 1929 Is the value stocks had a dangerous tendency to go bust in the Great Depression, and the Coca-Colas that were horrendously expensive did not go bust.”
Grantham: Coal and diesel particulate matter kills millions annually in China
“No particulate matter, Which takes years off everybody's life and kills several million people a year in China from coal and so on and diesel.”
Grantham: Emerging market equities are at an unprecedented low relative valuation
“Emerging equities, emerging markets, are not only at an unprecedented low relative, but they are actually quite cheap, absolutely, compared to the US, and on their own.”
Grantham: China will drive over 30% of global growth over 20 years
“China, who is going to represent, according to the World Bank, over 30% of the entire world's growth over the next 20 years”
Grantham: Emerging markets GDP growth will beat developed markets in 2021
“Emerging markets, as I said, it's way over half of the global GDP. It is growing far faster, and because of the size of China, it's guaranteed to do that. It's going to have a much better growth rate this year under stress, much better than the GDP growth of t…”
Grantham: Venture capital uses very little leverage compared to other classes
“Ironically, leverage plays the least role in venture capital. Most of them have relatively little leverage. It's equity money.”
Grantham: Pre-revenue QuantumScape was briefly worth more than General Motors in 2020
“It exploded to a 131 by the end of twenty-twenty. For a second was worth more than General Motors. Years away from having any sales.”
Grantham: Index investing now represents over half the market
“Then it started to get traction, and in the last 25 years took off, and is now more than half the market.”