The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2027
Grantham: The AI bubble will break, led down by Nvidia
“This is exactly where you'd expect the bubble to break, and you would expect, other things being even, that it will be let down by NVIDIA, followed closely by the other giants.”
Jeremy Grantham Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 49:01 Jeremy Grantham – Bubbles, Value Investing, and the Long Game at GMO (EP.493)
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2026
Grantham: Global warming will reach 3.0 to 3.5 degrees Celsius
“The truth is we are not going to contain the climate warming of one and a half degrees or two degrees, that we are struggling to determine where in the zone over three degrees centigrade we'll end up. My guess is between three and three and a half degrees cent…”
Jeremy Grantham Jul 8, 2021 ▶ 10:02 Jeremy Grantham – GMO (Manager Meetings, EP.01)
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