The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

3statements match

3resolved → 0open claims → 0supported → 3contradicted →

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up

Aitken: UK and EU Will Have Framework Trade Deal by Summer 2020

“I think there's a good chance that we have the bare bones of a deal, if you will, about the future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. I think we have the bare bones of a deal by the summer.”

James Aitken Feb 10, 2020 ▶ 33:08 James Aitken – Tour Around the World from a Small Island (Capital Allocators, EP.122)

Prediction Didn’t hold up

Federal Reserve Terminal Rate Will Hit at Least 300 Basis Points

“So Fed funds doesn't get to 525 basis points like it did in O six. It gets to something like, oh, let's say, 300, which I think would surprise some people if we got there, but that's where I think it's the minimum.”

James Aitken Jun 25, 2018 ▶ 1:10:15 James Aitken – Macro Strategist Extraordinaire (Capital Allocators, EP.58)

Assertion Contradicted

James Aitken notes Total is one of the largest global forestry businesses

“Total, gigantic European energy company, well run, good shape, now one of the world's largest forestry businesses.”

James Aitken Feb 10, 2020 ▶ 20:25 James Aitken – Tour Around the World from a Small Island (Capital Allocators, EP.122)

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