The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Smith: Kenya's Equity Group compounded dollar EPS at 20% annually for 20 years
“It started as a listed entity around 20 years ago, and since then it has grown its dollar EPS by over 20% per annum.”
Colin Smith Nov 7, 2022 ▶ 14:57 Colin Smith and Farouk Miah - Empty Rooms: Investing in Africa (Capital Allocators, EP. 279)
Assertion Supported
Smith: Africa consistently accounts for half of the world's fastest-growing economies
“If you look at the top 10 or top 20 fastest growing economies in the world, Africa always makes up Half of those, and has done for many years, and is expected to continue to do so.”
Colin Smith Nov 7, 2022 ▶ 22:44 Colin Smith and Farouk Miah - Empty Rooms: Investing in Africa (Capital Allocators, EP. 279)
Assertion Partly supported
Smith: A 20-year US inflation differential perfectly explains African currency depreciation
“The most important thing for us, the starting point is that if we look at any of our floating currencies over a 20 year period, the inflation differential to the US perfectly explains the depreciation.”
Colin Smith Nov 7, 2022 ▶ 34:29 Colin Smith and Farouk Miah - Empty Rooms: Investing in Africa (Capital Allocators, EP. 279)
Assertion Supported
Smith: Inter-country correlation is much higher than sector correlation across African equity markets
“We know that inter-country correlation is much, much higher than sector correlation across Africa, for example.”
Colin Smith Nov 7, 2022 ▶ 51:21 Colin Smith and Farouk Miah - Empty Rooms: Investing in Africa (Capital Allocators, EP. 279)
Assertion Partly supported
Smith: South Africa accounts for roughly 60% of investable African equities
“South Africa is a very, very big part of that, about 60% in terms of number of names, as well as market cap.”
Colin Smith Nov 7, 2022 ▶ 13:34 Colin Smith and Farouk Miah - Empty Rooms: Investing in Africa (Capital Allocators, EP. 279)
Assertion Supported
Smith: 98% of Kenya's Equity Group transactions happen electronically outside physical branches
“So they were very, very quick to adopt all sorts of technology over time to the point now where 98% of their transactions are electronic transactions that happen away from any sort of bank branch.”
Colin Smith Nov 7, 2022 ▶ 16:41 Colin Smith and Farouk Miah - Empty Rooms: Investing in Africa (Capital Allocators, EP. 279)
Assertion Partly supported
Smith: MTN Nigeria trades at a single-digit P/E and yields a 7% dividend
“And Ted, you can buy MTN Nigeria for single digit PE. You can buy Equity Group in Kenya for less than book value. Both of them pay us seven percent. Div yield at the moment.”
Colin Smith Nov 7, 2022 ▶ 18:58 Colin Smith and Farouk Miah - Empty Rooms: Investing in Africa (Capital Allocators, EP. 279)
Assertion Partly supported
Smith: African stock markets represent just 20% to 25% of regional GDP
“African stock markets are still, what, you know, 20 to 25% of GDP. Miles behind the rest of the world. You know, China is up at 80, 90%. The U.S. Is well over a hundred.”
Colin Smith Nov 7, 2022 ▶ 21:25 Colin Smith and Farouk Miah - Empty Rooms: Investing in Africa (Capital Allocators, EP. 279)
Assertion Supported
Smith: African equity markets underperformed the rest of the world from 2015 to 2019
“The African markets didn't perform particularly well really since 2015, 20 15 through 19. The African markets in general underperformed the rest of the world and in particular the U.S.”
Colin Smith Nov 7, 2022 ▶ 27:55 Colin Smith and Farouk Miah - Empty Rooms: Investing in Africa (Capital Allocators, EP. 279)
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