The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Leffell: FDIC gave away SVB and Signature Bank assets at advantageous prices
“We saw a similar situation recently when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank went bust, and the FDIC took over their books. The FDIC was selling it. They were giving it away at very, very advantageous prices.”
Michael Leffell Mar 11, 2024 ▶ 17:04 Michael Leffell – Opening Doors to Niche Private Opportunities at 10 East (EP.373)
Opinion
Aitken: Fed backstop prevented post-SVB credit contraction
“The point here is that so successful has the Fed's backstop of regional banks and so forth been That it has not only prevented the accelerating tightening of credit we all expected after Silicon Valley Bank, it's actually incentivized banks to be calm, be meas…”
James Aitken Jul 10, 2023 ▶ 22:34 James Aitken – Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy (EP.326)
Opinion
Daniel: Tech critics hypocritically begged for SVB uninsured deposit bailouts
“But the people who got bailed out of uninsured deposits, and the ones who complained about the entire banking system in and of itself, and then were begging, and they got bailed out, that was a pet peeve of mine that drove me insane.”
Vincent Daniel Jul 3, 2023 ▶ 56:33 Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel - Big Shorts and Big Longs (Capital Allocators, EP.325)
Assertion Supported
Blitz: SVB crisis triggered a violent two-year Treasury squeeze via illiquidity
“You saw in March of this year where you had a pretty violent move in the two-year bond, one of the most liquid assets in the world. Many macro managers were positioned in that bond. They had to get out of that position when the Silicon Valley Bank news hit. Mo…”
Adam Blitz May 29, 2023 ▶ 20:46 Hedge Fund Master Class – Craig Bergstrom, Adam Blitz, and Dan Fagan (Capital Allocators, EP.318)
Opinion
Falls: SVB faced a liquidity crisis while First Republic faced insolvency
“So in one case, it's probably more of a liquidity crisis, too much reliance on short-term funding, and in the other, it may have been more of a solvency crisis, real loan impairment.”
Amy Falls May 22, 2023 ▶ 9:19 Amy Falls – From Bonds to Boards to Leading Northwestern (Capital Allocators, EP.316)
Prediction Held up
Giannini: Bank retrenchment will drive continued expansion in private credit
“The movement away from traditional sources of credit Is only going to continue. Banks are getting out of that business, and what's happened in the U.S. With Silicon Valley and Signature, I mean, there's just going to be more need for private credit. The amount…”
Mario Giannini Apr 17, 2023 ▶ 53:47 Mario Giannini & John Toomey – Private Equity Panel (Capital Allocators EP.309)
Insight
Sub-$200M Businesses Reliant on Cheap Bank Debt Risk Rapid Insolvency
“Having a business that is entirely reliant on dirt cheap, consistent debt financing from a bank is really risky and particularly risky if you are sub two hundred million dollar market cap. So a small gust of wind, a small hiccup, and we saw this with SVB and F…”
Josh Kopowitz Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 9:58 Josh Koplewicz – Flexible Capital and Creative Structures at Thayer Street (EP.451)
Opinion
Owl Rock Is a Top Software Lender Alongside SVB
“I think today we are probably, I don't know if we're the largest, but we are one of the largest dedicated lenders to the software space. We have 22 people focused on software, half in New York, half out in Menlo Park. So, I mean, clearly Silicon Valley Bank is…”
Doug Ostrover Jul 26, 2021 ▶ 29:53 Private Equity Masters 6 – Doug Ostrover – Blue Owl Capital (Capital Allocators, EP.205)
Disclosure
Michelakis: Gladstone Shorted US Regional Banks Before SVB Collapse
“And we were short ahead of the market recognizing that. The market just didn't want to believe that things were actually not good for the banks until SVB happened.”
George Mikulakis Jan 15, 2024 ▶ 34:54 George Michelakis – Chess Master's Approach to Long-Short Equity at Gladstone (EP.362)
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