why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Leffell: FDIC gave away SVB and Signature Bank assets at advantageous prices
“We saw a similar situation recently when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank went bust, and the FDIC took over their books. The FDIC was selling it. They were giving it away at very, very advantageous prices.”
Opinion
Aitken: Fed backstop prevented post-SVB credit contraction
“The point here is that so successful has the Fed's backstop of regional banks and so forth been That it has not only prevented the accelerating tightening of credit we all expected after Silicon Valley Bank, it's actually incentivized banks to be calm, be meas…”
Opinion
Daniel: Tech critics hypocritically begged for SVB uninsured deposit bailouts
“But the people who got bailed out of uninsured deposits, and the ones who complained about the entire banking system in and of itself, and then were begging, and they got bailed out, that was a pet peeve of mine that drove me insane.”
Assertion Supported
Blitz: SVB crisis triggered a violent two-year Treasury squeeze via illiquidity
“You saw in March of this year where you had a pretty violent move in the two-year bond, one of the most liquid assets in the world. Many macro managers were positioned in that bond. They had to get out of that position when the Silicon Valley Bank news hit. Mo…”
Opinion
Falls: SVB faced a liquidity crisis while First Republic faced insolvency
“So in one case, it's probably more of a liquidity crisis, too much reliance on short-term funding, and in the other, it may have been more of a solvency crisis, real loan impairment.”
Prediction Held up
Giannini: Bank retrenchment will drive continued expansion in private credit
“The movement away from traditional sources of credit Is only going to continue. Banks are getting out of that business, and what's happened in the U.S. With Silicon Valley and Signature, I mean, there's just going to be more need for private credit. The amount…”
Insight
Sub-$200M Businesses Reliant on Cheap Bank Debt Risk Rapid Insolvency
“Having a business that is entirely reliant on dirt cheap, consistent debt financing from a bank is really risky and particularly risky if you are sub two hundred million dollar market cap. So a small gust of wind, a small hiccup, and we saw this with SVB and F…”
Opinion
Owl Rock Is a Top Software Lender Alongside SVB
“I think today we are probably, I don't know if we're the largest, but we are one of the largest dedicated lenders to the software space. We have 22 people focused on software, half in New York, half out in Menlo Park. So, I mean, clearly Silicon Valley Bank is…”
Disclosure
Michelakis: Gladstone Shorted US Regional Banks Before SVB Collapse
“And we were short ahead of the market recognizing that. The market just didn't want to believe that things were actually not good for the banks until SVB happened.”