why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Abell: Data shows almost zero correlation between buying cheap and PE returns
“You might say, well, buying cheap is better, but when you look at the actual data, you do a regression analysis, and so maybe you would expect to see it in the cheaper you bought, the return would be up and to the right. And what we really see is that, one, th…”
Assertion Partly supported
Madorsky: Actual PE fund lifespans stretch to 15 to 18 years
“It's not 10 years the life of a fund. It's not 12 years the life of the fund plus the two-year extensions. It's 15 to 18 years.”
Insight
Abell: Vintage year benchmarks fail to match private equity investment timing
“A vintager benchmark has some significant flaws in it. First off, it puts against managers that have started their funds at similar times. These are managers that, of course, are investing over a two to five year period, depending on how quick or how slow they…”
Disclosure
Madorsky: Up to 85% of RCP's secondary returns come from appreciation
“So much so that when you deconstruct our returns, about 80 to 85% of our total returns has been through appreciation, not through discount.”
Prediction Held up
Madorsky: AI will build initial PE financial models within three years
“In three years, certainly AI will be able to create a first or second run at our models. It might not be able to fine tune or drive a lot of the assumptions that we need the qualitative rich data that we're collecting, but to actually create and populate the E…”
Insight
Abell: Private equity allocators either strictly outsource or invest in-house
“What they found out over time, and what I found out over time, is that there wasn't a lot of gray area. There were people that wanted to outsource it or needed to outsource it to someone like RCP, and there were people that were always going to do it themselve…”
Insight
Abell: Lower Middle Market PE Returns Come From Growth, Not Leverage
“So in our part of the market and the smaller part of the market, we don't use financial leverage to generate most of our returns. Most of the returns are generated through growth. They're generated through taking smaller, less sophisticated companies that have…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Abell: 2023 Was One of the Worst Years for PE Proceeds
“So last year was probably one of the worst years for proceeds and realizations that we've had in our data.”