The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Jain: Altria outperformed Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon over the past five years
“Cigarette volume has been declining at seven, eight percent in US. And guess what, last five years? Altria has outperformed Mera. I think now Microsoft and Amazon last five years.”
Rajiv Jain Jun 8, 2026 ▶ 46:10 Contrarian Quality at GQG Partners – Rajiv Jain (EP.505)
Prediction Held up
Corre: Microsoft's acquisition of Activision will get completed
“And it's still not done, but we feel pretty good that it's going to get done.”
Isaac Corre Oct 16, 2023 ▶ 41:52 Isaac Corre – Event-Driven Investing at Governors Lane (EP.344)
Assertion Contradicted
Mid-level engineers at Microsoft are making $1 million in total compensation
“I was just on a call where somebody was talking about mid-level, not even senior engineers at Microsoft are making a million dollars.”
Chris Douvos Jan 10, 2022 ▶ 20:07 Chris Douvos – The LP's Perspective from Ahoy Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 2 (Capital Allocators, EP.230)
Assertion Contradicted
Thomas Reardon single-handedly coded Internet Explorer and was Bill Gates's right-hand
“While he's at Microsoft, he single-handedly codes Internet Explorer, which we've all used, and he's also Bill's right-hand guy during the entire DOJ Monopoly trial.”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 31:01 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Assertion Supported
Microsoft's five-year stock growth was driven predominantly by earnings
“But then if you take something like Microsoft, for example, it's seen some multiple expansion, but the predominant driver of the exceptional stock price in Microsoft for the last five years has been earnings.”
Brian Christensen Jan 11, 2024 ▶ 46:13 Brian Christiansen – High-Conviction Growth Investing at Sands Capital (EP.361)
Assertion Supported
Dixon: Microsoft did not miss mobile phones and had good devices in the 2000s
“People say windows, Microsoft missed mobile phones. They didn't miss mobile phones at all. They had mobile phones in the late nineties. They had very good ones in the early 2000.”
Chris Dixon Jan 11, 2021 ▶ 27:14 Chris Dixon – The Future of Blockchain at a16z (Capital Allocators, EP.172)
Assertion Supported
Morfit: Microsoft still uses ValueAct's executive compensation design
“I looked back at the Microsoft proxy this year, and I was really pleased to see that the basic architecture of what we designed over a decade ago is still in place.”
Mason Morfit Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 29:35 Mason Morfit and Rob Hale – Quiet Activism at ValueAct (EP.462)
Assertion Supported
Morfit: Microsoft traded at eight times earnings in 2013
“So the PC legacy of the company was not what was going to take it forward, and the stock was trading at about eight times earnings.”
Mason Morfit Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 26:17 Mason Morfit and Rob Hale – Quiet Activism at ValueAct (EP.462)
Assertion Supported
Active ETF Structures Defer Capital Gains Taxes for Fund Investors
“The brilliance of the ETF structure led by Vanguard is create a structure that we can own Microsoft. We don't, but we can own Microsoft and Toga. It can double. We could sell Microsoft and the owners of Toga won't pay the capital gains tax until they sell thei…”
Brett Barakett May 20, 2024 ▶ 1:02:17 Brett Barakett - Digging for the Puck at Tremblant Capital (EP.386)
Assertion Partly supported
Vieth: Overhaul tracks high-value cargo for Apple, Dell, and Pfizer
“Their customers are, I think, high-value goods. So Apple, Dell, Microsoft, Pfizer, Bristol-Myers, some cold storage, where they're Tracking and monitoring the environment of this high value cargo from beginning point to end point.”
Mike Vieth Jan 25, 2024 ▶ 34:04 Chad Summe and Mike Veith – Corridor of Commerce at eGateway Capital (EP.364)
Assertion Supported
Tedlow: In its early years, Microsoft was famous for vaporware
“Microsoft is famous for vaporware. In the early years, I should say, certainly not now. Marketing products that had not gone through the formality of being created.”
Richard Tedlow Nov 15, 2021 ▶ 37:17 Richard Tedlow - Charismatic Business Leadership (Capital Allocators, EP.222)
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