why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Garg: Most DeFi protocols will fail to capture defensible value
“A lot of these protocols ultimately we think will not capture that much value despite there being very useful. It's just going to be really tough for them to actually capture significant value defensively over time.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Electric Capital found raising a $1B fund easier than $10M
“Bizarrely, it was easier for us to raise a billion dollars than it was to raise that first ten million dollars.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Garg: Crypto will be a multi-chain environment governed by power laws
“We tend to think the world is going to be multi-chain. It's not going to be one chain to rule them all. And there probably is going to be some sort of power law there. So the big winner will be really big. We tend to think Bitcoin and Ethereum will be really b…”
Insight
Garg: Crypto VC firms must operate like engineering-driven software companies
“The way to do investing in crypto would be really different. And it would look a lot more operational. It would look a lot more like a software company than it would a traditional investment firm.”
Insight
Garg: Value chains form a U-curve where middle integrators get squeezed
“What you can visualize is sort of a U-curve, which is to say that if you're on the far left and you really own the user relationship, you can capture a ton of value. And if you're on the far right, you have some CapEx-heavy hard technology problem. You can lik…”
Prediction Held up
Garg: Uniswap will try to capture end-user interface value
“So I think in the case of somebody like Uniswap, you're going to see them try to capture more end-user-facing value and try to own that interface.”
Insight
Garg: Following developers is one of early-stage investing's best heuristics
“One of the best heuristics is follow the developers.”
Insight
Garg: Founders must tolerate being perceived as dumb for years
“And it turns out that psychological position is very important if you're going to be a founder or if you're going to be an investor in something like crypto. You have to be comfortable with people thinking you're dumb for many years at a time.”
Disclosure
Electric Capital employs full-time engineers instead of VC associates
“We don't have associates and principals. We just hire engineers. So we have eight engineers on staff and these are killer people.”
Insight
Garg: The best investments happen when crypto is deeply unpopular
“Curtis and I always joke that the best investments are when nobody wants to talk to us and we're slowly getting there. When we're very, very unpopular is actually the right time to be investing.”
Disclosure
Magic Eden had a $100M revenue run rate when Electric Capital invested
“At the time that we made the investment, they were doing like a hundred million or so annualized run rate, ARR for their business.”
Assertion Supported
Ethereum developer counts remained flat despite 80 percent price drops
“The number of developers that are continuing to write code in Ethereum, despite prices being down 60 to 80%, it's flat. The number of full-time developers hasn't gone down. They're still writing code.”
Disclosure
Electric Capital built software crawling GitHub to track developer activity
“We built a system that crawls all of GitHub and GitLab and a bunch of open source repositories and figures out where there's real developer activity.”
Assertion Supported
Every Electric Capital core investor holds a computer science degree
“Everybody on the core investment team has computer science degree.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Syndicate enabled over 5,000 DAOs to launch within nine months
“You look at DAOs, decentralized autonomous organizations, where investors in a company called Syndicate, which is essentially DAO infrastructure, makes it really easy to create a DAO and use that infrastructure. They now have over 5000 DAOs that are using the …”