why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
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Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hamilton: Heavy Inflows into Private Equity Will Lead to Disappointing Returns
“In a world where there is so much money going into private equity right now, I mean, obviously, inflows of capital lead to price discovery, which collapses these kind of informational edges that a lot of people have built, so I do think that there are a lot of…”
Opinion
Hamilton: European Markets Offer More Alpha Than China Due to Complexity
“If you look at Europe, actually, I would argue that there's more alpha there because there's more regulation. There's less transparency. It's very difficult because a lot of times it helps to be part of the culture and to speak the language. And if you could b…”
Insight
Hamilton: Portfolio construction must start with governance, not manager selection
“And I have gotten raked over the coals a couple of times because people are like, why would you say that governance is the most important thing? And I'm like, guys, how can you build a portfolio without starting with governance? So it starts with an enterprise…”
Insight
Hamilton: The endowment model only fits institutions with substantial distribution needs
“It's hard to generalize institutions because so many people talk about the endowment model and forget that it really isn't for everybody. There are a lot of institutions that outsourcing it or indexing it is actually a really great option. It's for a specific …”
Insight
Hamilton: Staying on LPACs impacts energy companies more than divestment
“The way I look at it is if you truly want to make an impact on that industry, why would you leave the table? You have such a louder and more impactful position to a GP of a fund or to a portfolio company As a member of their ELPAC. Because frankly, once you're…”
Insight
Hamilton: Pure deflation-hedging in fixed income destroys capital long term
“20% target to fixed income is all of that pure deflation hedging. It's not, I can tell you, because it would be nearly impossible to build a portfolio like that without destroying capital long term.”
Insight
Hamilton: Buying and Improving 'Boring' Companies Works Very Well in PE
“I think there's still something to be said for just boring, buy it cheap, create some improvements, and then sell it to somebody with a little bit more money. That's actually worked very well for us.”
Disclosure
Children's Health prioritizes cash liquidity over beating the S&P 500
“I like the downside protection, and frankly, the goal of our institution's program is not to beat the S&P. It's not to beat some arbitrary benchmark. It is to make sure that we have cash on hand when the institution needs cash.”
Insight
Hamilton: Authentic Fund Manager Edge Is informational Access or Superior Processing
“A lot of people say, oh, it's our team or, oh, it's our culture, which those things are really important, but typically your edge is informational or at least the ones that really stand out. So either you have access to better information or you do something b…”
Disclosure
Children's Health targets a portfolio beta of approximately 0.6
“We don't need to be Yale, so we target a beta of about .6, and from there build a portfolio around it.”
Disclosure
Children's Health investment team met with over 1,000 managers annually
“My boss, my former boss, before he left, met with 800 to a thousand managers a year by himself, and then I met with another three or 400, so really it's just covering the market.”
Disclosure
Children's Health holds more fixed income to back capital project debt
“Being a hospital, one of the things that we kind of go through in the enterprise review is we issue debt for capital projects, so, you know, that's actually really important because these assets back up in a lot of instances the debt issuance, and so we typica…”
Assertion Supported
Hamilton: CAR-T trial achieved an 83% pediatric leukemia remission rate
“We were involved in the CART T clinical a couple of years back for pediatric leukemia, and in this kind of nationwide CART T clinical, 83% of the kids who had recurring leukemia went into remission. And so before, I mean, fewer than 50% lived a couple of years…”
Disclosure
Children's Health met a private fund manager 20 times before committing
“One of the private investments that we're taking later this month is, I mean, we've met with them probably 20 times.”
Disclosure
Children's Health organizes its portfolio into four broad asset classes
“We look at the world in four asset classes. So global equity, global fixed income, real assets, diversifying strategies, which is the catch-all for everything with a beta .3 or less, but it kind of becomes this catch-all for everything that doesn't really fit …”
Disclosure
Hamilton's board chair and foundation head follow her on Twitter
“So I ended up disclosing it. The chairwoman of my board follows me. The head of our foundation follows me. I told my boss about it as he was being onboarded because I want people to feel really confident that they can trust me to not speak for the institution …”