why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Sonnenshein: Institutional allocators are rotating out of gold funds into Bitcoin
“Some investors are carving out some of their gold allocation and moving it into digital assets like Bitcoin. We don't find it the least bit coincidental that we saw some of the largest outflows on record from gold funds in Q four of last year when Bitcoin star…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Novogratz: Bitcoin and major currencies will trade on the same broker desks within five years
“There is absolutely no way that in a five years time, at least, you're not calling up your broker and saying, you know, dollar yen and cable and Bitcoin and Libra and gold, and they're going to all get traded on the same desk.”
Assertion Supported
Forman: Strategic Bitcoin Reserves Are Actively Discussed in 31 US States
“We're now discussing a Bitcoin strategic reserve at the federal level in the U.S. And in 31 states.”
Prediction Partly held up
Housenbold in 2021: Central bank liquidity will continuously buoy asset prices
“You look at central banks around the world and they're all pledging to do roughly the same thing. That will continue to buoy assets and assets in the form of gold, in the form of Bitcoin, in real estate, and in equities.”
Assertion Contradicted
Paul: BitMEX held 70% of global Bitcoin trading volume around 2020
“BitMEX, which had the largest trading volume for Bitcoin in the world, they had 70% of all volume about a year ago.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ginns: PayPal's Spinoff Filing Was the First SEC Filing Mentioning Bitcoin
“I remember the first SEC filing that mentioned Bitcoin and kind of feeling a level of validation, a level of
Excitement around this coming into the, just the first fold of mainstream.
And it was the S one where PayPal spun out of eBay.”
Assertion Supported
Peters: One River's First Public Statements Moved Bitcoin 15-25%
“The first three times, you know, Though we've said anything, Bitcoin has moved by 15 to 25% within a couple days, which is kind of wild.”
Assertion Partly supported
Forman: 70% of All Bitcoin Has Not Moved On-Chain in a Year
“And 70% of all Bitcoin Has not moved on chain in the past year.”
Assertion Supported
Ari Paul: CME Bitcoin futures often trade at 20% annualized premium to spot
“Basis, you can capture CME futures, often trade at a 20% annualized premium to spot Bitcoin.”
Assertion Supported
Veremis: Traditional 2016–2017 VC vintages held crypto and Bitcoin exposure
“In the 2016, 17 traditional venture capital vintages, you saw some managers having exposure to blockchain, either blockchain companies or even Bitcoin on some occasions.”