The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 84 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hamed: Blockchain funds are already priced in due to lack of skeptics
“As an allocator, I'd have a really hard time, by the way, investing in blockchain funds, because I can meet a lot of people who talk shit about Bitcoin, and I can't meet a lot of people who are haters on the blockchain. So that's probably already been priced i…”
Forman: $30 Trillion Wealth Transfer Will Provide Demographic Tailwinds for Bitcoin
“And as this greatest wealth transfer in human history plays out, 30 trillion over 20 years from boomers to Gen Z and millennial There's just a natural demographic tailwind for Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is very well positioned.”
Peters: Bitcoin Is Economically Unique Because Supply Cannot Respond to Price
“It's an asset unlike any other asset that I am aware of in the history of the world in the sense that no matter what the price is, the supply will not respond. It has a predefined schedule of supply over the next, you know, a hundred years or whatever, a 120 y…”
Chhabra: Cryptocurrency has staying power because it appeals to anti-centralization
“There appears to be an ability for two different systems to coexist, because there are countries outside the US, there are the deep state, and those who fear the deep, you know, there's a duality in the society, and so crypto appeals to a certain section of so…”
Crypto prime brokerage requires controlling private keys due to lack of clearinghouses
“Digital assets work in a very different manner. There is no DTCC. There's no central repository. Owning the private key of Bitcoin is ultimately owning the ability to own the asset and settle the asset. And so if you don't own the private key, you can't actual…”
Bitcoin mining is a maximally competitive, efficient market without central management
“Bitcoin hashing is an insanely efficient market, and nobody centrally manages it. It's all based on bottoms-up incentives in a global marketplace of competition. And because of that, it's an extremely competitive area. So that competition is net beneficial for…”
Coinbase erred strategically by launching peripheral products in 2014 and 2015
“I think one thing that we screwed up a bit at Coinbase is throughout 2014, 2015, we tried to launch all these new products. We were launching like a tip button that you could embed and tip people on Reddit. We were very focused on merchant integrations for peo…”
Visser: Bitcoin is crypto's gold while Ethereum is its oil
“I view Bitcoin as the gold of the crypto world. I view Ethereum as oil for the crypto world or the energy.”
Hall Capital Holds Small Bitcoin and Ethereum Index Positions for Clients
“We also have for where it's appropriate, which get, it's a definitely a subset of our clients, small, but I would call index, quasi index positions, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Positions that we basically are doing it as if an index, but this is way out on the risk rew…”
Housenbold in 2021: Central bank liquidity will continuously buoy asset prices
“You look at central banks around the world and they're all pledging to do roughly the same thing. That will continue to buoy assets and assets in the form of gold, in the form of Bitcoin, in real estate, and in equities.”
Paul: BitMEX held 70% of global Bitcoin trading volume around 2020
“BitMEX, which had the largest trading volume for Bitcoin in the world, they had 70% of all volume about a year ago.”
Paul: A Third of UChicago Endowment Staff Bought Bitcoin in 2016
“Almost immediately, probably a third of UChicago endowment employees bought Bitcoin in 2016.”
Paul: Copying Long Crypto Addresses for Million-Dollar Transfers Is Insane
“The idea that we're copying and pasting this arcane long string of alphanumerics to represent a million or ten million dollar transfer is insane. It's so error prone. It feels awkward. It's terrible. I had hoped four years ago, I thought that by this point we …”
Paul: Wealth created by Bitcoin flows down the risk curve to newer assets
“The wealth created by Bitcoin flows down the risk curve. Bitcoin going from 3000 to 30,000 in a year, that generates wealth. That wealth looks for its next 10 X and flows down the risk curve into riskier, newer assets.”
Ginns: Bitcoin Halvings Drive 4-Year Cycles Followed by 70-80% Corrections
“Crypto has tended to have a Four-year cycle. I believe that's tied to Bitcoin's halving cycle. The new supply issuance of Bitcoin gets cut in half every four years, roughly. We call that the halving. And as a result, you tend to have three good years of perfor…”
Ginns: Institutions Move Beyond Bitcoin in 3 to 6 Months
“And I think we're certainly seeing in the institutional conversations that we're having a very quick progression from either Bitcoin alone or Bitcoin and Ethereum to start to looking at a broader set of crypto assets. And it's not a two year progression. It's …”
Ginns: PayPal's Spinoff Filing Was the First SEC Filing Mentioning Bitcoin
“I remember the first SEC filing that mentioned Bitcoin and kind of feeling a level of validation, a level of
Excitement around this coming into the, just the first fold of mainstream.
And it was the S one where PayPal spun out of eBay.”
Sonnenshein: Bitcoin's lack of core protocol changes is a strength
“There's also still this shared appreciation that, 12 years into Bitcoin, we, Thankfully, haven't really broken it. We haven't really messed it up, and so it's kind of the old adage of, if it ain't broke, don't try and fix it, but while that has remained relati…”
Peters: One River's First Public Statements Moved Bitcoin 15-25%
“The first three times, you know, Though we've said anything, Bitcoin has moved by 15 to 25% within a couple days, which is kind of wild.”
McKeon: Tokenized assets will trade across a spectrum from 24/7 to restricted hours
“So I think what you're going to see is a spectrum. So some assets are going to trade 24 seven. I mean, many assets already do. Bitcoin is traded 24 seven. Ethereum is traded 24 seven. For traditional assets, maybe the larger issues will trade 24 seven, but you…”
McKeon: Shortening traditional asset settlement via automation is promising but complex
“And so one of the points I make in the paper is that I think there is a lot of promise in terms of really reducing settlement time, but these are more complicated transactions than just the way cryptocurrency works, right? Like you've got custodians involved, …”
Pfeffer exited all fund crypto holdings except Bitcoin due to valuation concerns.
“Came to the view that I said, you know what, actually, look, at the time it was, I just don't see how the current values of anything but Bitcoin can be justified, and we got out of everything but Bitcoin, and that enabled us to take our basis plus a return out”
Egan: Personal investing lacks accountability because investors cannot fire themselves
“Giving advice and being responsible for somebody else's money is different than what you do with your own. So I know people who have made bets on Bitcoin or various other things that lost tons of money, and if they were an advisor, they would be fired, but you…”
Forman: 70% of All Bitcoin Has Not Moved On-Chain in a Year
“And 70% of all Bitcoin Has not moved on chain in the past year.”
Scaramucci: SkyBridge bought its first Bitcoin around $16,000 to $17,000
“I think we bought our first Bitcoins in the 16 to 17,000 zone, which ironically is where it is right now.”
Fund offered Mónica a 20% bounty to recover $1.5M Bitcoin passphrase
“I was doing consulting on my free time while at Talker, and there was a fund that reached out to me that had lost the passphrase to a 1.5 million dollar Bitcoin wallet and offered me 20% if I could break into it.”
Olaf Carlson-Wee invested his life savings into Bitcoin in 2011
“I put most of my life savings in Bitcoin that summer in 2011. I think it was 500 dollars or 700 dollars or something like that.”
Veremis: Holding Bitcoin during the Greek debt crisis would have protected citizens
“We should have had some Bitcoin next to our Greek government bonds. It would have helped a lot.”
Drogen: Starkiller hedges beta using Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures
“And what usually happens is we'll hedge with some super liquid assets that we can do very cheaply, specifically perpetual futures contracts in Ethereum, Bitcoin, and a couple others.”
Ari Paul: CME Bitcoin futures often trade at 20% annualized premium to spot
“Basis, you can capture CME futures, often trade at a 20% annualized premium to spot Bitcoin.”
Paul: Two Sigma and Susquehanna Run Machine Learning Algorithms on Bitcoin
“Bitcoin, you do have machine learning algos from guys like Two Sigma and Susquehanna pointed at it.”
Ginns: CoinFund re-underwrites liquid holdings after 20-25% drawdown vs Bitcoin
“So if we have a, depending on the volatility of the asset, if we have a 20 to 25% relative drawdown versus Bitcoin, let's make sure that our thesis is playing out. Let's make sure we understand the dynamics that are at play. And the re-underwriting decision ca…”
Peters: One River Made Historic Institutional Crypto Entry at $15,000
“When I think about it as a trader, when we decided to get into this marketplace and made at the time, which was the biggest institutional asset allocation in the space, we wanted to figure out what were the best sources of liquidity to quietly get the exposure…”
Pfeffer initially allocated a low single-digit percentage to Bitcoin all at once.
“Low single digit percentage. And we did it all at once.”
Veremis: Traditional 2016–2017 VC vintages held crypto and Bitcoin exposure
“In the 2016, 17 traditional venture capital vintages, you saw some managers having exposure to blockchain, either blockchain companies or even Bitcoin on some occasions.”
Jain: Multicoin Capital does not trade Bitcoin short-term
“Because we knew what we didn't want to do is go and start trying to trade Bitcoin up and down. That's not what we do. That's not our edge. Our edge is in thinking about these assets, thinking about how the technology is going to be applied.”