why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Sternlicht: Amazon subsidizes $4B-$5B retail losses with AWS to destroy small retailers
“It's fundamentally destroying mom and dad retail across the country, and it's one of my pet peeves because they were allowed to sell product retail-wise for less than the cost of, they're losing four or five billion a year in retail, which they subsidize with …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Garg: Decentralized storage protocols like IPFS are competitive with AWS
“And beyond that, even decentralized infrastructure. You have things like IPFS, Interplanetary File System, which is incentivized with Filecoin, or RWE, which is a permanent data store. And these things work. You can actually store data on them. Depending on wh…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2031
Montgomery: Edge computing startup could reach $40B to $50B in 10 years
“So we're building one company that we think will be the AWS of the edge. We think we can build a company that's worth 40, fifty billion dollars in 10 years.”
Assertion Supported
Sacerdote: AWS Targeted the Largest Business IT Market in History
“In the traditional world, that was six hundred billion dollars of spend, and AWS was going after all of it. This was the biggest market in business IT ever, because previous markets were just the server market, or just Cisco was good in networking, EMC was goo…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Quintini: AWS and distribution made starting startups 10x cheaper
“And venture going through a big transformation on the other side of the house and this transformation of seed and product market fit changing, right? The 10 X cheaper to start with AWS, global distribution channels, et cetera. And all of a sudden the instituti…”
Insight
Startups are cheaper to launch today but far costlier to scale
“Paradoxically, I think the thing that's the biggest change in my career is it's gotten both cheaper and more expensive paradoxically to get a startup from inception to exit. Cheaper in the early days because the cost of inputs has gotten so much lower with AWS…”