The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Wolfe predicts a massive pullback in institutional LP allocations to venture capital
“Private equity generally, of which venture capital is like, you know, the tiny bit that's generally clustered into that ass glass, I think is going to see a huge pullback in at least new allocations, if not the pace of allocations.”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 48:26 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Prediction Held up
Wolfe: WeWork will face severe downside operating leverage when economic conditions contract
“The operating leverage that those businesses, by the way, get on the upside is huge. But once you have this precipitous pruning and these people start disappearing, I think the operating leverage that you get on the downside is going to be really painful. And …”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 58:29 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Assertion Supported
Wolfe: OpenAI Generates Roughly $13B, 70% from $20/Month Subscribers
“Today, roughly, thirteen billion of revenue at OpenAI. 70% of that revenue is from 20 dollar a month paying subscribers like me.”
Josh Wolfe Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 39:43 Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
Assertion Supported
Wolfe: Almost Every Stock in ARK Invest Is in Bear Market
“When you look at, like, ARK Invest as one proxy of this, or the Russell 2000, I think all but four or five names in her portfolio, at Cathie Wood's portfolio, are in bear market territory, somewhere between 20% down and 65 or 70% down.”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 11:13 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
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