Shiloh Bates, Chief Investment Officer at Flat Rock Global, explains why CLO cash-flow modeling requires exact precision compared to direct first-lien loan underwriting.
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“There's no par payout at the end. A lot of times you're getting back 40 cents, 50 cents on the dollar. Now, over the eight-year life of the CLO, you've got these very large distributions along the way. Hopefully it nets to a nice return for you, but you don't get par back at the end. So the modeling of it really needs to be a hundred percent accurate because every dollar is going to be part of that IRR. There's no magical hundred cents that comes back to you at the end.”
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More from Shiloh Bates
AssertionSupported
CLO equity returns reached the high 20s during the Global Financial Crisis
“And then if you were in contrast, an investor in CLO equity through the financial crisis on a buy and hold basis, a lot of the equity in those deals return high, 20% returns and the debt in the CLOs defaults rarely as well.”
Shiloh BatesApr 11, 2024▶ 6:32Shiloh Bates – CLO Investing at Flat Rock Global (EP.379)
AssertionSupported
30-year default rate on BB-rated CLO debt tranches is 20 basis points
“If you look back over 30 years, the default rate on CLO double Bs is around 20 basis points.”
Shiloh BatesApr 11, 2024▶ 12:14Shiloh Bates – CLO Investing at Flat Rock Global (EP.379)
AssertionSupported
BB-rated CLO debt currently yields over 12% with minimal defaults
“Today, because CLO BBs are floating rate, and because the Fed has hiked so much, we're getting yields in the 12% plus area, and defaults have been really, really minimal.”
Shiloh BatesApr 11, 2024▶ 12:41Shiloh Bates – CLO Investing at Flat Rock Global (EP.379)
AssertionNot checkable as stated
Only about 15 institutional investors provide initial CLO equity
“So I think there's about 15 of us. One of the common jokes in the CLO industry is that you go to CLO conferences, of which there's many, and it's a common theme that, ah, you know, there's new investors coming into the market, and you kind of always hear this,…”
Shiloh BatesApr 11, 2024▶ 20:10Shiloh Bates – CLO Investing at Flat Rock Global (EP.379)
What-if
AAA CLOs would have buffered banks during the 2023 banking crisis
“If you look at the banking crisis of the spring of last year, look, if banks would have owned AAA rated CLOs instead of some of the bonds that might be in the Bloomberg aggregate bond index, CLO AAAs might've traded to 97 cents on the dollar or something like …”
Shiloh BatesApr 11, 2024▶ 7:09Shiloh Bates – CLO Investing at Flat Rock Global (EP.379)
AssertionSupported
Only about 6% of CLOs have historically generated a negative IRR
“So by our math, it's about six percent of CLOs that have had negative IRR.”
Shiloh BatesApr 11, 2024▶ 23:10Shiloh Bates – CLO Investing at Flat Rock Global (EP.379)
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