UTIMCO prefers probabilistic 'fox' portfolio managers over overconfident storytellers
Tony Caruso · Will England, Derek Drummond, and Tony Caruso – Disintermediating Pod Shops (EP.501) · May 11, 2026 · at 55:26
Tony Caruso of UTIMCO explains his investment philosophy during closing questions on Capital Allocators, referencing Philip Tetlock and Nate Silver's concepts of foxes versus hedgehogs.
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“Overconfidence. People who think they can predict the unpredictable. If you've read any books by Nate Silver or Philip Teplot, they call it the hedgehogs. The great storytellers, not the ones who actually assign probabilities and understand that there's uncertainty with any prediction. They call them the foxes. I try to find foxes when I invest in PMs. They don't tell as great of a story. They understand that my hit rate is 53%. I'm wrong 47% of the time. I don't have a hundred percent confidence in anything, but if I can keep on hitting that 53% over time, that's going to be a great business.”
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