Tim McCusker

President, NEPC · 5 appearances on the record.

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Tim McCusker serves as President of NEPC, LLC, an investment consultancy and outsourced chief investment officer firm advising on over $1.7 trillion in assets. Having joined NEPC in 2006, he previously served for more than a decade as the firm's Chief Investment Officer, leading asset allocation, research, and strategic portfolio design.

52statements → 19claims → 9claims resolved → 67%fully supported → 3.67/5average certainty → 1.81/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 4said about them ↓

6 supported 1 partly supported 2 contradicted 1 not yet assessed 9 not checkable as stated how the 19 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

8 predictions · 11 assertions · 5 opinions · 15 insights · 13 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 19 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 9 are resolved, 1 is not yet assessed, and 9 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Tim argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Prediction Held up
McCusker: More Institutional Firms Will Merge With RIA Platforms
“The other thing is this is going to continue to happen. I don't think these are the last two firms that are going to tie up with RIA platforms.”
Tim McCusker Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 43:08 Asset Management Consolidation - Simon Krinsky, Hall Capital and Tim McCusker, NEPC (EP.421)

Their most notable contradicted claim

Prediction Didn’t hold up
McCusker: PE Capital Calls Will Drop by at Least One-Third
“Our expectation is that calls and distribution will both be lower. I think when we analyzed it, calls and distributions were down by a third to half through the global financial crisis, and that's sort of our base case right now that we can expect At least a t…”
Tim McCusker Apr 30, 2020 ▶ 11:16 Tim McCusker – Advising Through a Crisis at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP.135)

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
50% certainty 3
90% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Tim McCusker on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Tim McCusker said on Capital Allocators that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Insight
Institutional boards are increasingly delegating manager selection to staff
“As that dedicated staff is billed out, boards or investment committees seem to be getting more and more comfortable with giving those staff members some authority, if not full authority, but authority to make manager decisions, hiring and firing decisions, but…”
Tim McCusker Dec 17, 2018 ▶ 20:26 Tim McCusker – Consistency and Creativity as CIO at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP. 80)
Insight
Quantitative filtering reliably predicts persistent manager underperformance
“It's very predictive on the bottom half. The managers that are drifting down towards the bottom tend to continue underperforming. So it allows us to say, cut the universe in half.”
Tim McCusker Dec 17, 2018 ▶ 29:17 Tim McCusker – Consistency and Creativity as CIO at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP. 80)
Insight
Room dynamics reveal true decision-makers over named portfolio managers
“I think the people part to me is the most important. It's not just who they are, but it's how they work together, how they interact, and sometimes that's more subtle things. Sometimes, sometimes there's a named portfolio manager, but you get a group in the roo…”
Tim McCusker Dec 17, 2018 ▶ 33:20 Tim McCusker – Consistency and Creativity as CIO at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP. 80)
Insight
Fixed income managers are naturally dour; equity managers are perpetually optimistic
“You're going to expect to have more Dour and conservative people and on the fixed income side of things that the world's always ending and everyone's going to default versus the equity guys that think everything's going to go on forever.”
Tim McCusker Dec 17, 2018 ▶ 37:35 Tim McCusker – Consistency and Creativity as CIO at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP. 80)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mid-sized endowments drive venture capital demand over large public funds
“The large public funds aren't doing much in venture. So it's, We definitely think it's worth it. I'd say there's more of an appetite for venture from our smaller and medium sized endowment clients. A 500 or billion dollar endowment can make a five or ten milli…”
Tim McCusker Dec 17, 2018 ▶ 40:27 Tim McCusker – Consistency and Creativity as CIO at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP. 80)
Assertion Contradicted
China produces roughly twice as much AI research as the US
“If you look at the publication of AI research, probably two X has come from China as opposed to the US.”
Tim McCusker Dec 17, 2018 ▶ 48:28 Tim McCusker – Consistency and Creativity as CIO at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP. 80)
Prediction Held up
China will reach negative population growth in the 2030s
“In 2030, or sometime in the 20 thirties, China is going to move to negative population growth.”
Tim McCusker Dec 17, 2018 ▶ 48:49 Tim McCusker – Consistency and Creativity as CIO at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP. 80)
Insight
Passive investing in high-yield debt is counterproductive
“You don't want to be passive in high yields. And, you know, even if you just want to get exposure, you still want to be active there. You don't want the biggest bonds in your portfolio to be there just because the company's issued more debt.”
Tim McCusker Dec 17, 2018 ▶ 54:37 Tim McCusker – Consistency and Creativity as CIO at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP. 80)
Insight
Clients undermine long-term views after just three months of underperformance
“We're setting five to seven year views, and if they're not working in the first three to six months, we've got all of our consultants and clients saying, why do we do this? How do we not see this? And I think Behaviorally, we all fall victim to it, so I fall v…”
Tim McCusker Dec 17, 2018 ▶ 59:19 Tim McCusker – Consistency and Creativity as CIO at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP. 80)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCusker: OCIO Has Been Major Growth Tailwind for Consulting Firms
“The tailwind that has helped all of us the last decade is the OCIO channel. And that has been a great source of growth for us and many others.”
Tim McCusker Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 8:26 Asset Management Consolidation - Simon Krinsky, Hall Capital and Tim McCusker, NEPC (EP.421)
Assertion Supported
McCusker: Large PE firms built 100-person sales teams for RIA market
“We looked at some of the big private equity firms starting to raise hundred person sales forces to attack that market, and we thought, well, that's not really implementable for any PC, so let's keep it on there, but we don't really have anything right now.”
Tim McCusker Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 16:17 Asset Management Consolidation - Simon Krinsky, Hall Capital and Tim McCusker, NEPC (EP.421)
Disclosure
McCusker: NEPC hired an investment banker for market education, not auctioning
“We engaged an investment banker to help us not so much scan the universe and bring in other potential suitors, but just help us understand who are the other players besides Hightower. Where does Hightower fit in terms of how they work with their advisors”
Tim McCusker Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 20:34 Asset Management Consolidation - Simon Krinsky, Hall Capital and Tim McCusker, NEPC (EP.421)
Disclosure
McCusker: All 350+ NEPC employees receive bonuses upon deal close
“We made sure that all of our 350 plus employees are getting something out of this transaction. There's a bonus for every single person who's employed when the transaction closes.”
Tim McCusker Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 24:00 Asset Management Consolidation - Simon Krinsky, Hall Capital and Tim McCusker, NEPC (EP.421)
Assertion Supported
McCusker: Hightower Has Acquired 140 Advisor Teams
“Hightower has gone through a lot of acquisitions. They've acquired a 140 advisor teams.”
Tim McCusker Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 40:01 Asset Management Consolidation - Simon Krinsky, Hall Capital and Tim McCusker, NEPC (EP.421)
Disclosure
McCusker: BlackRock's Strategic Income Opportunities is NEPC's most notable BlackRock allocation
“So we do think highly of them and we use them in a lot of different ways, but Rick's strategic income opportunity strategy is probably the most notable one that we use.”
Tim McCusker Aug 26, 2021 ▶ 6:35 Rick Rieder – BlackRock (Manager Meetings, EP.08)
Insight
McCusker: Corporate LDI clients saw the most direct benefit from rebalancing
“If they had an LDI allocation, which most of them do, They saw some of the biggest gains from fixed income, and they were probably the earliest to rebalance, because rates fell very quickly, and it was actually a positive basis mismatch for them if they had an…”
Tim McCusker Apr 30, 2020 ▶ 8:18 Tim McCusker – Advising Through a Crisis at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP.135)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCusker: Asset managers across strategies are exploring the TALF credit opportunity
“Everyone is looking at the TALF opportunity now, so we've got everything from long only liquid Managers talking about that.”
Tim McCusker Apr 30, 2020 ▶ 9:23 Tim McCusker – Advising Through a Crisis at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP.135)
Insight
McCusker: Video calls reduce informal competitor intelligence gathered during manager meetings
“That may be one of the things that we lose by not having the in-person meetings in the office. I think that can often be part of the conversation at the beginning or end of a manager meeting, kind of the casual chit chat of, hey, what are you hearing from othe…”
Tim McCusker Apr 30, 2020 ▶ 20:18 Tim McCusker – Advising Through a Crisis at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP.135)
Insight
Public pension asset allocation changes take three to six months
“On the other end of the spectrum, we can go to a, say, a public plan, and we've got to go through the governance process, we've got to go through monthly meetings, we've got to think about what that means for their discount rate and have conversations about th…”
Tim McCusker Dec 17, 2018 ▶ 18:03 Tim McCusker – Consistency and Creativity as CIO at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP. 80)
Disclosure
NEPC's bespoke OCIO business manages over $20 billion across 50 clients
“So we have what is now a large OCIO business with probably over twenty billion dollars, over 50 clients. Every portfolio that we build is bespoke.”
Tim McCusker Dec 17, 2018 ▶ 22:45 Tim McCusker – Consistency and Creativity as CIO at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP. 80)
Disclosure
NEPC maintains an approved list of up to 400 long-only managers
“I think we have about 350 to 400 managers in long only overall, so probably 200 or so of those, or 150 to 200 are equity.”
Tim McCusker Dec 17, 2018 ▶ 36:46 Tim McCusker – Consistency and Creativity as CIO at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP. 80)
Disclosure
Most NEPC client large-cap US equity dollars are passive
“If I go by dollar count, it's much, much higher because many of our large public funds are passive in U.S. Equities and often running it internally for cost management purposes.”
Tim McCusker Dec 17, 2018 ▶ 55:57 Tim McCusker – Consistency and Creativity as CIO at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP. 80)
Assertion Supported
McCusker: NEPC was fully employee-owned for nearly 40 years
“We've been fully independent, employee-owned our entire almost forty-year existence, but no surprise, we always say yes to those meetings.”
Tim McCusker Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 16:47 Asset Management Consolidation - Simon Krinsky, Hall Capital and Tim McCusker, NEPC (EP.421)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCusker: NEPC's 50 partners kept deal confidential for seven months
“Having our partners keep it confidential for what amounted to about seven months, Which is a borderline miracle at the end of the day.”
Tim McCusker Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 23:16 Asset Management Consolidation - Simon Krinsky, Hall Capital and Tim McCusker, NEPC (EP.421)

Show 4statements(4 left)

The other half of the tape: Tim McCusker's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 4 times in 2 episodes on Capital Allocators. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Ted Seides 3Sarah Samuels 1

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
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01120222023episodes it came up in
001.50.53120222023episodesmentions per episode
2023 3 mentions in 1 episode
2022 1 mention in 1 episode

Appearances (5)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Asset Management Consolidation - Simon Krinsky, Hall Capital and Tim McCusker, NEPC (EP.42 Dec 9, 2024 28m
Jack Sommers – Core Fixed Income at IR+M (Manager Meetings, EP.39) Oct 20, 2022 5m
Rick Rieder – BlackRock (Manager Meetings, EP.08) Aug 26, 2021 8m
Tim McCusker – Advising Through a Crisis at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP.135) Apr 30, 2020 14m
Tim McCusker – Consistency and Creativity as CIO at NEPC (Capital Allocators, EP. 80) Dec 17, 2018 47m
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