Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: Strategic Chinese tech and manufacturing will drive investor returns
“I do think strategic China will be the space where investors will have returns provided that it is legal for them to do that.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2032
Papic: China will remain dependent on semiconductor imports for the next decade
“China's trying its best to get to those sophisticated levels below five nanometer chip level, which it can't. And I think it's going to take a long time for them to do that. Much longer than people think. There's no Moore's law in getting to that level. And so…”
Insight
Papic: Building US chip fabs reduces Taiwan's strategic value
“When the United States of America starts building fabs in the US, it actually reduces the strategic value of Taiwan.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: China will be very cautious regarding Taiwan due to economic risks
“As I said, I think China is going to be very cautious. I think for China, this is not the moment To create a huge downside risk to its economy.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: Europe will remilitarize and integrate independently of the US umbrella
“I think what it means Is Europe is going to remilitarize. If you have the mandate on the ESG side, buy some European defense stocks, but don't expect it to do so within the US umbrella. And I think that European integration is actually going to be one of the c…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: Global markets are entering a resilient commodity super cycle
“We are at a cusp of a commodity super cycle, and a recession could obviously curtail that. It would waylay it, but not for a significant period of time.”
Insight
Papic: Volcker Defeated Inflation Due to Politics, Not Individual Competence
“Now, most investors will say it was Paul Volcker that did this, and I have a huge problem with that. There's no way that an academic No matter how freakishly tall they may be. There's no way that they get to crush inflation by inducing a recession and high une…”
Prediction Partly held up
Papic: Dollar will fall, yields rise, and global equities beat US
“Because if Biden or Trump wins from a macro perspective, I think dollars going down, I think ten-year yields are going up. I think U.S. Equities are going to do well, but I think global equities are going to do better. Commodities are also going to do extremel…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: US Will Not Sever Economic Relationship with China
“Eventually American policymakers realize this is a constraint, this is a huge constraint, that they cannot sever their economic relationship from China, because if they do, somebody else will pick up the benefits, the revenues.”
Opinion
Papic: Bullish on emerging markets for the first time since 2011
“I'm bullish, and it's interesting because I've never been bullish on emerging markets since I joined financial industry, although I haven't been in the industry for that long, so it doesn't mean much, but from 2011 until this year, I've been very bearish”
Insight
Papic: Rewiring global supply chains is growth- and commodity-positive
“I think the rewiring of supply chains is growth positive. It's positive for commodities. You have to build new factories. You have to move stuff around.”
Insight
Papic: U.S.-China rivalry creates prime opportunities for African frontier markets
“I think that this great power competition between China and the U.S. And potentially other countries mixed in creates a really interesting environment for frontier markets like Africa, maybe some of the less developed countries in Latin America and Asia as wel…”
What-if
Papic: US assets would have peaked under Harris over four years instead
“I would argue that if Vice President Harris had won the election, we would be in the same boat in terms of the peak in U.S. Assets. We just wouldn't have as extraordinary of a sell-off. So what would have happened under Trump in 12 months would have probably h…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Papic: Congress Will Not Revoke Trump's Tariff Authority
“You've got the House and the Senate talking about taking away tariff rights from President Trump. It's not going to happen, but they're talking.”
Assertion Contradicted
Papic: Only Two Emerging Market Macro Hedge Funds Exist Today
“There are two macro hedge funds dedicated to emerging markets today. Two of them. There's none doing commodities.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: Q1 2025 Asset Performance Trends Will Continue for Five Years
“If you just look at asset performance in January, February, and March, that is the truth. If you're a long-term capital allocator, go back, look at the performance January, February, March. That's the truth. You see who the winners and losers are, and that I t…”
Opinion
Papic: Markets are pricing in a quick resolution to Russia's invasion
“The first scenario, just to be clear, is I think what the market is pricing right now, with market action being where it is.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Papic: Green energy agenda will not be substantively reversed despite costs
“You have the green energy agenda, which I don't think is going to be reversed in a substantive way, despite the costs.”
Insight
Papic recommends a 'green-brown barbell' of fossil fuels and private green tech
“My message has been, you need a green, brown barbell portfolio. You want to be in the brownest of the brown stuff and then invest in green tech as much as you can, hopefully not in public markets. I prefer the privates for that space.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Papic: The US and China are the only nations with Web 2.0 revolutions
“US and China are the only two countries that had this web two point O revolution. Europe doesn't have social media companies. Japan missed it completely.”
Opinion
Papic: US cannot counter China effectively because allies will defect commercially
“For U.S., the constraint is that they can't build a coalition of the willing against China. If every country in the world is going to cheat, if France is going to sell airbuses, if America pulls back on Boeings, if that's what's going to happen, then there is …”
Insight
Papic: Political analysts do not understand market pricing or entry points
“So I think political analysis professionals don't understand the concept of priced in. They don't understand the concept of having a clear view that can be articulated in the markets. And you may have a very cogent and elegant and parsimonious view on why Pola…”
Insight
Papic: Boring academics yield better geopolitical insights than famous insiders
“I do encourage people to seek out experts and to seek out people who know, but quite often it's the technocrat. It's the academic who's been buried in an ivory tower for the past 30 years looking at this one issue. It's quite often the boring contact that will…”
What-if
Papic: Germany Bailed Out Greece to Prevent a Crippling Deutschmark Appreciation
“Say Germany during the Euro area crisis, highly expert reliant economy. If they had abandoned the Euro, the Deutschmark two point O would have appreciated 20, 3040, 50, 60%, and then bye-bye Germany. So hell yes, they're going to pay for Greek debt, like high …”
