Dan Ariely

Professor, Duke University · 2 appearances on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

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Dan Ariely conducts behavioral science research on irrational decision-making and dishonesty, authoring bestselling books including Predictably Irrational. He founded Duke’s Center for Advanced Hindsight and co-founded companies such as Irrational Capital and BEworks.

41statements → 21claims → 13claims resolved → 85%fully supported → 3.83/5average certainty → 2.46/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 6said about them ↓

11 supported 2 partly supported 0 contradicted 2 not yet assessed 6 not checkable as stated how the 21 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

2 predictions · 19 assertions · 2 opinions · 18 insights · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 21 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 13 are resolved, 2 are not yet assessed, and 6 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Dan argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Ariely: The SHE Index systematically underperforms the S&P 500
“Yeah, so it does much worse. Systematically, repeatedly, by big gap.”
Dan Ariely May 17, 2021 ▶ 19:51 Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195)

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
83% certainty 3
90% certainty 4
100% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Dan Ariely on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Dan Ariely said on Capital Allocators that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Insight
Ariely: Directly asking employees beats proxy metrics like sick days
“And when we don't look at what's happening inside people's brains, and we look at other things instead, we're giving up a lot. So for example, think about something like sick days. Sick days is obviously a really good indication of how excited people are about…”
Dan Ariely May 17, 2021 ▶ 10:47 Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195)
Insight
Ariely: Third-party surveys yield better employee data than internal collection
“When we ask people with these data providers, it is very important that the data is being collected by a third party. You know, if the company is trying to collect the data directly from employees, there's always a risk that people are trying to create some im…”
Dan Ariely May 17, 2021 ▶ 11:30 Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195)
Insight
Ariely: Fairness and workplace pay are primarily driven by relativity
“Relative pay is more important. Relative fairness is more important. Fairness is all about relativity.”
Dan Ariely May 17, 2021 ▶ 12:58 Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195)
Assertion Supported
Ariely: The importance of inclusive innovation increased during COVID
“We found one of the things that changed during COVID is what we call inclusive innovation has increased in its importance.”
Dan Ariely May 17, 2021 ▶ 17:04 Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195)
Insight
Ariely: Employees adapt to office perks, but appreciation yields lasting motivation
“If you think about things like better coffee, better tables, better chairs compared to feeling appreciated, There's just no comparison, and the thing that happens there is if you get better coffee, and I'm a big fan of coffee, so I love good coffee, if you get…”
Dan Ariely May 17, 2021 ▶ 23:52 Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ariely: The positive performance impact of employee benefits will fade post-COVID
“Now, I think that will go away, but it was interesting to see how this timing did change a little bit the mix of what was important.”
Dan Ariely May 17, 2021 ▶ 33:25 Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195)
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Ariely: Sector-specific human capital models are no better than universal models
“So we didn't do this research during COVID, but we did, of course, in the pre-COVID data, right, from 2006 and on, and we found no difference. When you do kind of statistical modeling, there's what's called nested models. So you could say, let me create a mode…”
Dan Ariely May 17, 2021 ▶ 35:04 Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195)
Insight
Ariely: Human motivation factors drive impact across all industries, not just tech
“There are big differences about people care, and we can all imagine how people who care at Google are going to create a bigger impact, but no, people who care, it would manifest everywhere. So the things that we're capturing are Feeling appreciated. Feeling th…”
Dan Ariely May 17, 2021 ▶ 38:16 Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195)
Insight
Ariely: Remote work dramatically elevates intrinsic over extrinsic motivation
“You put employees at home, All of a sudden, the role of intrinsic motivation versus extrinsic motivation changes dramatically.”
Dan Ariely May 17, 2021 ▶ 41:06 Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ariely: Human capital sentiment data has an 18-month half-life
“So in general, what we find is that this data has a half lifetime of about 18 months.”
Dan Ariely May 17, 2021 ▶ 43:48 Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195)
Assertion Supported
Ariely: Higher National Violence Correlates With More COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories
“There's a new research that shows that looks at 67 countries and show that the more violence there is in the country, the more they have conspiracy theories about COVID 19.”
Dan Ariely May 17, 2021 ▶ 55:06 Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195)
Insight
Ariely: The intra-empathy gap causes major mistakes in judging motivation
“This question, by the way, is about how difficult it is for us to estimate emotional states of things we don't experience, and it's also connected to our discussion here today, because, you know, when you are setting up a motivation for your employees, you're …”
Dan Ariely May 17, 2021 ▶ 58:19 Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195)
Assertion Supported
Ariely: Soweto residents sometimes spend up to two years of income on funerals
“People in Soweto spend up to two years sometimes of income on funerals.”
Dan Ariely Apr 1, 2019 ▶ 11:51 Dan Ariely – Investing in Irrationality (Capital Allocators, EP.93)
Assertion Supported
Ariely: Expensive painkillers relieve more pain than identical cheap ones
“So in one study, we checked what happens when we give people expensive medications and cheap medication, and we show that the expensive medication create higher belief, and therefore they're also more effective. So we gave people electrical shocks, and we saw …”
Dan Ariely Apr 1, 2019 ▶ 17:58 Dan Ariely – Investing in Irrationality (Capital Allocators, EP.93)
Insight
Ariely: Cash compensation settles past obligations while gifts build future relationships
“If I pay you, What is the time horizon of payment? The time horizon usually you've done something for me and I'm paying you back. The books are closed, right? It's backward looking. It's not, I'm paying you and now you owe me. It's like you did something, I'm …”
Dan Ariely Apr 1, 2019 ▶ 31:51 Dan Ariely – Investing in Irrationality (Capital Allocators, EP.93)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ariely: Discretionary effort gap in the knowledge economy will continue widening
“Everybody in the knowledge economy has a large range, and that range is only going to increase.”
Dan Ariely Apr 1, 2019 ▶ 38:29 Dan Ariely – Investing in Irrationality (Capital Allocators, EP.93)
Insight
Ariely: Companies cannot contract discretionary effort or employee imagination
“Companies can contract on the minimum amount of work you need to do, but nobody can contract on how much energy you're really putting toward work, how imaginative you're trying to be, how much you're reading extra, thinking hard, and so on.”
Dan Ariely May 17, 2021 ▶ 14:19 Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195)

The other half of the tape: Dan Ariely's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 6 times in 1 episode on Capital Allocators. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Kristof Gleich 6

Every mention by year

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Appearances (2)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Dan Ariely – The Human Capital Factor (Capital Allocators, EP.195) May 17, 2021 43m
Dan Ariely – Investing in Irrationality (Capital Allocators, EP.93) Apr 1, 2019 54m
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