The Exchanges

Every argument clarity score on this site is built from rows on this page. Each question and answer was assessed with names hidden, the host's own answers included, on four things from 1 to 5: directness (does it answer the question asked), coherence (do the ideas follow), precision (concrete details and clear references), compression (says a lot per word). The weighted mix (30/30/25/15) is the exchange score. A person's published score averages their exchange scores on raw tape only, at least 8 of them, shrunk toward the cohort mean. Full method →

Paul Sonkin no published score: no usable exchanges on raw tape, and a fair score needs 8+ record → ← everyone

Every exchange below was scored with names hidden, four dimensions each from 1 to 5. An exchange's score is 0.30·directness + 0.30·coherence + 0.25·precision + 0.15·compression. The published score averages the raw tape exchange scores and shrinks small samples toward the cohort mean, so five great answers can't beat twenty good ones. Produced feed rows count only toward coarse estimates, never toward a full score.

clear all ✕
1exchanges match
0on raw tape
1redirected or not addressed
Redirected produced feed D 2 · C 4 · P 3 · Cm 3 3.00

Q Are there any other features of the premortem that are kind of essential to making it work?

A What we've done a lot of work on is the wisdom of crowds and cognitive diversity, and we think that if you think about an investment committee meeting where they're discussing a stock idea, you have senior people, and you have junior people, and the junior people, like, fear stifles ideation, so they're afraid to say anything because they've only been there for six months, and the portfolio manager's been there for 20 years, and as Paul said they could be wrong, and they don't want to look stupid, so they keep their mouths shut. When you think about all of the money that firms spend on that talent, it's wasted because there's a lot of cognitive diversity that is lost if these people don't articulate what they're thinking. And that also happens when you get the conversation which is dominated by one particular individual is that that cognitive diversity is lost.

AI assessment note: “What we've done a lot of work on is the wisdom of crowds and cognitive diversity”

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