overconfidence
1 statements across 1 episodes · 0 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement May 13, 2019 by Michael Mauboussin · across every show →
Everything said about overconfidence, oldest first
May 13, 2019
Mauboussin: Investors are overconfident on small samples and underconfident on large samples
“If you have strong strength and low validity, like small sample size, people tend to be overconfident. So you flip that thing 10 times, they go, it's a tails biased coin, right? The opposite side would be like, if you flip the coin 10,000 times and it comes up…”