Josh Wolfe

30 statements across 3 episodes · 11 bullish · 13 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Aug 20, 2018 by Josh Wolfe · said 10 times in 7 episodes since 2019 · across every show →

On the record as a speaker too: Josh Wolfe's record, appearances and statements → this page counts the times other people say the name.

Mentions by year

brought up most by Ted Seides (6), Renata Quintini (2), Vincent Daniel (1), Sahil Bloom (1)

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Everything said about Josh Wolfe, oldest first

Aug 20, 2018
Disclosure
Wolfe: Lux Capital manages under $1.5B and raises $400M every two years
“Now just under a billion and a half. You know, we have periodicity where now we're about every two years raising about four hundred million dollars.”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 23:26 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Aug 20, 2018 negative
Insight
Founders should view competition as infuriating, not as market validation
“When entrepreneurs say of competition, that's validating. When somebody sees news of a competitor and says, oh, you know, it's definitely validating of our market or something like that, I pull my hair out because I don't want you to find competition validatin…”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 1:08:41 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Aug 20, 2018 positive
Insight
Wolfe: VCs must be cynical and distrustful to spot carny charlatans
“You've got all kinds of carny charlatans that basically sculpt you into a somewhat cynical, squinty eyed, distrustful person of, you know, somebody trying to scheme over you, which I think in my business where you never really know if somebody is going to be l…”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 6:13 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Aug 20, 2018 neutral
Disclosure
Wolfe: Lux Capital hasn't used a financial spreadsheet in over a decade
“I joke, I haven't looked at a spreadsheet in over a decade. There's nothing for us to model.”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 36:17 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Aug 20, 2018 neutral
Insight
Wolfe considers a 3.5x return on Crystal IS a process failure
“And here we ended up making three, three and a half times our money, but we considered it a process failure because all the expectations, all the modeling that we had and what the outcome could be, the reasons that a business would be bought all proved false. …”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 46:38 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Aug 20, 2018 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wolfe: Future computing will replace keyboards with invisible human-machine interfaces
“When you step back, and you see that directional arrow of progress, it is that we are going to be less Hunched over a QWERTY keyboard and a mouse and much more natural human interaction with our computers, which means the technology has to get more and more so…”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 29:06 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Aug 20, 2018 negative
Opinion
Wolfe calls IBM Watson 'utter BS' and dangerous in its marketing
“And then the last thing that I rail against also, which I think is utter BS is IBM Watson. And I think it's actually dangerous what they're promoting.”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 53:49 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Aug 20, 2018 negative
Disclosure
Lux Capital passed on Cruise at $80M pre before GM's $1B acquisition
“The story which I tell publicly is about cruise automation. We offered them a twenty million dollar financing at a forty million pre, and they wanted eighty million pre money, and we thought that was absurd and too high. In the course of diligence, we introduc…”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 45:36 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Aug 20, 2018 bearish
Prediction Held up
Wolfe: WeWork will face severe downside operating leverage when economic conditions contract
“The operating leverage that those businesses, by the way, get on the upside is huge. But once you have this precipitous pruning and these people start disappearing, I think the operating leverage that you get on the downside is going to be really painful. And …”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 58:29 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Aug 20, 2018 negative
Opinion
Wolfe: Venture capitalists have shifted to funding irrelevant 'fufu' mobile apps
“And I think that that guard has given way to people that are funding, you know, what I consider fufu apps and You know, mobile stuff that I think has very little relevance, but like real hard technology. It's provable. It's real. It's verifiable. It's not, you…”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 12:21 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
Feb 21, 2022 bearish
Opinion
Wolfe: Average Venture Investor Does Cursory Diligence and Wings Decisions
“And in this environment, the amount of diligence that the average investor is doing to identify those risks is cursory at best. It is like showing up for the finals exam if you're in college or, you know, your kids and just winging it. People are just winging …”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 22:26 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Feb 21, 2022 bullish
Opinion
Wolfe: AR Will Beat VR Due to Innate Desire for Physical Presence
“Virtual reality will be for some a medium to express their genius and unleash it for the rest of the people. But I am generally less excited about VR. Why? Because I do think that there is this natural analog human desire that is hundreds of thousands of years…”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 39:09 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Feb 21, 2022 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Wolfe: Varda Will Launch First Space Manufacturing Mission in Late 2022
“Next year, this time, so it's gonna be a Q-three, Q-four, 20, 22, they will launch the first manufacturing thing in space, and that was wheeled into existence.”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 51:23 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Feb 21, 2022 neutral
Insight
Wolfe: Software Winners Depend on Randomness and Momentum, Not Better Tech
“The problem is there are a lot of competitors in many of those businesses, and often the reasons why one becomes that runaway success, even in the power law distribution within a sector, is sometimes random. Sometimes it's related to locks. Sometimes it's rela…”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 18:20 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Feb 21, 2022 negative
Disclosure
Wolfe: VCs Will Never Admit Slowing Investments to Protect Deal Flow
“We will never publicly come out and say, we're slowing down our pace. Because anybody that does that is going to lose deal flow.”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 56:29 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Feb 21, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wolfe: Facebook Nearly Tripled Its Initial Acquisition Offer for CTRL-Labs
“Facebook made an initial entreaty. We rejected it. They effectively nearly tripled their offer. It became more financially attractive”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 23:26 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Feb 21, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wolfe: LP Indigestion Will Tip and Deflate the Venture Capital Market
“So what I think will tip this, and I would put my highest conviction that this is the cause, is LP indigestion.”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 13:31 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Feb 21, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wolfe: Future Technology Will Digitize and Replay Scent
“The directional arrow of progress clearly points to the ability to capture and eventually replay scent for all kinds of things.”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 29:16 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Feb 21, 2022 bearish
Disclosure
Wolfe: Lux Avoids Nuclear Startups Because Timelines Depend on Public Acceptance
“People that are pursuing nuclear power today, at the moment, do not count us as investors. Because I believe that the timeframes are not dependent upon the technology development. They're dependent on popular acceptance.”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 49:52 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Feb 21, 2022 bearish
Assertion Supported
Wolfe: Sub-$10M ARR Startups Routinely Received Billion-Dollar Valuations
“Remember, you're investing in companies where the new normal has been that a company with five or seven or eight or sub-ten million ARR, annual recurring revenue, is getting a billion-dollar valuation. We used to look at things where it was like one or two or …”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 12:54 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Feb 21, 2022 bullish
Disclosure
Wolfe: Lux focuses on starting deep-tech companies with under five competitors
“And so we are spending more and more time on the deeply technical, very hard to do Under five competitors and helping those entrepreneurs start those companies because we're not playing in an auction game.”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 17:14 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
Dec 8, 2025 negative
Insight
Wolfe: Increasing VC fund size is the enemy of returns and founder alignment
“Fund size increasing is the enemy of returns. The incentives for the founders who want to have great investors that can be early stage investors that can scale with them over time, that's harder to do when you have a much bigger fund.”
Josh Wolfe Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 11:25 Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
Dec 8, 2025 bearish
Insight
Wolfe: Smart employees at mega VC funds will likely never see carry
“The smart employees at those funds know that they will likely never see a dollar of carry. The larger the fund you raise, the harder it is to return in venture.”
Josh Wolfe Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 10:56 Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
Dec 8, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wolfe: AI infrastructure buildout will destroy hundreds of billions in capital
“On the capital market side, you see hundreds of billions of dollars destroyed of people that play the same game that you did back in 2000 with fiber optic cables.”
Josh Wolfe Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 42:37 Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
Dec 8, 2025 positive
Opinion
Wolfe: Anduril is the 800-pound gorilla next-prime defense contractor
“Anduril has raised several billion dollars now. There are a few companies that are competing with them. There's a long tail of wannabe next gen defense tech companies, but Anduril is the 800 pound gorilla next prime.”
Josh Wolfe Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 10:17 Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
Dec 8, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Wolfe: Lux Capital divides investments equally across biotech, aerospace/defense, and core tech
“We do everything at Lux from about a third in biotech and robotic surgery and med devices and another third in aerospace and defense and industrial. The other third on core technology, which is everything from non-invasive brain machine interfaces to everythin…”
Josh Wolfe Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 9:54 Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
Dec 8, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Wolfe: 2D AI is saturated, the next frontier is biology and robotics
“The next wave that I'm bullish about is going from two-dimensional AI in this current wave, which is pretty much saturated. That is everything from voice, video, images, text, code, anything that's popping off a screen, to thinking about the next wave of three…”
Josh Wolfe Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 43:46 Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
Dec 8, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wolfe: Scientific wet lab research will be completely automated by robots
“Today, if you're a scientist, you have to go to a scientific lab, a wet bench, a white lab coat. You're working with pipettes and beakers, centrifuges, shaking tables. All of that is going to be done by robots. Completely automated labs operated in the cloud w…”
Josh Wolfe Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 49:07 Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
Dec 8, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wolfe: Capital allocation will shift toward asset maintenance technologies
“The pendulum is going to shift. Maintenance is going to be in high demand. That means that there's an opportunity for new technologies to help maintain existing assets.”
Josh Wolfe Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 46:23 Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
Dec 8, 2025 positive
Opinion
Wolfe: Physical Intelligence is the leading robotics AI data company
“There's a company called Physical Intelligence, known as Pi, that is the leader doing that.”
Josh Wolfe Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 44:26 Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
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