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future returns

2 statements across 2 episodes · 1 bullish · 1 bearish · 2 people on the record · first statement Sep 24, 2018 by Raphael Arndt · across every show →

Everything said about future returns, oldest first

Sep 24, 2018 positive
Insight
Arndt: Implied equity risk premium reliably predicts 10-year returns
“We can take the long bond rate or some forecast beyond that and say, disaggregate that and say, what is the implied equity risk premia? And that's actually a pretty good predictor of future returns over 10 years so.”
Raphael Arndt Sep 24, 2018 ▶ 21:36 Raphael Arndt – Australia's Sovereign Wealth Fund CIO (Capital Allocators, Episode 70)
Nov 23, 2020 negative
Assertion Supported
Trailing five-year fund performance has near-zero correlation with future returns
“And we know that the last one, three, five years of performance correlate almost nothing with the next one, three, five. So the way to get the next one, three, five is looking at process and looking if it makes sense and looking if the manager is going to stic…”
Joel Greenblatt Nov 23, 2020 ▶ 1:13:38 Joel Greenblatt – Common Sense for Value at Gotham Capital (Capital Allocators, EP.165)
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