expected value
2 statements across 2 episodes · 1 bullish · 0 bearish · 2 people on the record · first statement Sep 14, 2020 by Annie Duke · across every show →
Everything said about expected value, oldest first
Sep 14, 2020
Duke: Parsing close-call options is impossible and a waste of time
“All we've determined is that they're close, and even if we could determine it, it's a bad use of our time. Because they are so close that you're probably going to be kind of about the same happiness either way, at least in expected value, and so you should pro…”
Aug 5, 2024 positive
Simkin: Uncorrelated businesses scale profit linearly and variance sublinearly
“Our businesses being uncorrelated means that over the long run, I expect my profits to increase by the expected value of each of these businesses, but my variance, my standard deviation only to go up by the square root of the number of Businesses or exposures …”