BIN model
1 statements across 1 episodes · 0 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Mar 23, 2020 by Michael Mauboussin · across every show →
Everything said about BIN model, oldest first
Mar 23, 2020
Mauboussin: Noise explains 50% of the gap between elite and average forecasters
“The punchline of this, which was, I think, really the key lightning bolt, was that when they decompose this, they found that the difference between the best and the rest was 50% attributable to noise, 25 to bias, and 25 to information. So saying this different…”