base rates
2 statements across 1 episodes · 1 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Feb 4, 2021 by Michael Mauboussin · across every show →
Everything said about base rates, oldest first
Feb 4, 2021 positive
Mauboussin: Robust company forecasts require calibrating against historical peer growth distributions
“And alternatively, and I guess what you'd want to also do to come up with a robust forecast is you might look at the history of all companies of that size and simply ask, what is the distribution of growth rates for companies of that size? And you'll see it's …”
Feb 4, 2021 neutral
Mauboussin: Entrepreneurs need irrational optimism, but investors must rely on base rates
“If you're an entrepreneur and you actually know the base rates of failures for entrepreneurs, you might never try in the first place, right? So there's this really interesting
tension, I think, between we want that optimism at the global level. We want peopl…”