The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Saunders: Many at OpenAI discuss a three-year timeline to AGI
“And you know, what people were talking about at the company in terms of timelines to something dangerous were like, there were people talking, a lot of people talking about similar things to like the predictions of like, Leopold Aschenbrenner, where it's like …”
William Saunders Jul 3, 2024 ▶ 37:53 What The Ex-OpenAI Safety Employees Are Worried About
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Saunders: Departure from OpenAI was not caused by witnessing immediate harm
“If there were, if there was a group of people that I knew were being seriously harmed by this technology first, I still really hope that open AI would like do the right thing and address this. If this was like a very clear cut case. I also personally would you…”
William Saunders Jul 3, 2024 ▶ 11:47 What The Ex-OpenAI Safety Employees Are Worried About
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Saunders gives 10% probability of human-level remote AI within three years
“And I'm, you know, not as convinced about Leopold that this is necessarily going to come soon, but I think, you know, there's maybe like a 10% probability that this happens within three years.”
William Saunders Jul 3, 2024 ▶ 50:49 What The Ex-OpenAI Safety Employees Are Worried About
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Saunders: Most OpenAI employees and alignment efforts are English-focused
“Most of the people at opening I speak English. Most of the alignment work is done in English.”
William Saunders Jul 3, 2024 ▶ 15:32 What The Ex-OpenAI Safety Employees Are Worried About
Assertion Supported
Saunders: AI-assisted critique helps humans detect model errors
“What some of the research that I did at OpenAI was, you know, trying to develop techniques for this, and the simple technique that we tried and showed that worked was just ask a different AI system, or even the same AI system, is there a problem with this answ…”
William Saunders Jul 3, 2024 ▶ 8:13 What The Ex-OpenAI Safety Employees Are Worried About
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