Former OpenAI Superalignment researcher William Saunders responds to questions about whether he witnessed an imminent, catastrophic threat before resigning.
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Saunders: Many at OpenAI discuss a three-year timeline to AGI
“And you know, what people were talking about at the company in terms of timelines to something dangerous were like, there were people talking, a lot of people talking about similar things to like the predictions of like, Leopold Aschenbrenner, where it's like …”
Opinion
Saunders: OpenAI prioritizes shiny products over safety like the Titanic
“OpenAI claimed that their mission was to build safe and beneficial AGI, and I thought that this would mean that they would prioritize, you know, putting safety first. But over time, it started to really feel like the decisions being made by leadership were mor…”
Opinion
Saunders: GPT-4 is safe, but GPT-5 or later might be the Titanic
“I don't think that I was working on the Titanic. I don't think that GPT four was the Titanic. I'm more, I'm afraid that like GPT five or GPT six or GPT seven might be the Titanic in, in, in this analogy.”
Insight
Saunders: Small model oversight of large models clearly misses violations
“Some systems that the company has talked about involve using a very like small and dumb language model to like monitor what a larger language model is doing. And this will like clearly miss a bunch of things.”
Opinion
Saunders: California SB 1047 creates a superior model for AI whistleblowing
“I think that like a model that I think might work, you know, I think I personally think would work better would be like, The model more proposed in California Senate bill, 1047, where there would be like a, you know, the, where the law would create like, you k…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Saunders gives 10% probability of human-level remote AI within three years
“And I'm, you know, not as convinced about Leopold that this is necessarily going to come soon, but I think, you know, there's maybe like a 10% probability that this happens within three years.”