Former OpenAI Superalignment researcher William Saunders critiques automated monitoring approaches that use smaller language models to supervise larger frontier models.
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Saunders: Many at OpenAI discuss a three-year timeline to AGI
“And you know, what people were talking about at the company in terms of timelines to something dangerous were like, there were people talking, a lot of people talking about similar things to like the predictions of like, Leopold Aschenbrenner, where it's like …”
Opinion
Saunders: OpenAI prioritizes shiny products over safety like the Titanic
“OpenAI claimed that their mission was to build safe and beneficial AGI, and I thought that this would mean that they would prioritize, you know, putting safety first. But over time, it started to really feel like the decisions being made by leadership were mor…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Saunders: Departure from OpenAI was not caused by witnessing immediate harm
“If there were, if there was a group of people that I knew were being seriously harmed by this technology first, I still really hope that open AI would like do the right thing and address this. If this was like a very clear cut case. I also personally would you…”
Opinion
Saunders: GPT-4 is safe, but GPT-5 or later might be the Titanic
“I don't think that I was working on the Titanic. I don't think that GPT four was the Titanic. I'm more, I'm afraid that like GPT five or GPT six or GPT seven might be the Titanic in, in, in this analogy.”
Opinion
Saunders: California SB 1047 creates a superior model for AI whistleblowing
“I think that like a model that I think might work, you know, I think I personally think would work better would be like, The model more proposed in California Senate bill, 1047, where there would be like a, you know, the, where the law would create like, you k…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Saunders gives 10% probability of human-level remote AI within three years
“And I'm, you know, not as convinced about Leopold that this is necessarily going to come soon, but I think, you know, there's maybe like a 10% probability that this happens within three years.”