why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
a16z Should Be Embarrassed By Their 'Blatant Hucksterism' in Web3
“I think the reputational Aspect of it, you know, I think they should be embarrassed by this, and I think people should view them negatively for this pretty blatant tuxterism that they were involved in, because, you know, they, this evangelism that they were do…”
Insight
White: EA and e/acc rebrand Silicon Valley wealth accumulation as heroic
“Effective accelerationism and to an extent effective altruism are really just sort of a rebranding of a lot of the same philosophies that have existed in Silicon Valley for a long time where people really want to feel good about themselves. Like they're, you k…”
Opinion
Crypto VC Model Lets Firms Like a16z Dump Tokens on Retail
“Well, I mean, I think sadly Andreessen Horowitz probably came out of this financially kind of okay because with the, well, the crypto venture capital model is very slanted towards the venture capitalists where they can invest money in a firm. They receive thes…”
Opinion
White: Both EA and e/acc share a mythology about imminent godlike AI
“They both have this sort of mythology in their heads about this, you know, godlike AI being that is just around the corner.”
Opinion
White: Effective Accelerationism just rebrands 'move fast and break things'
“I think it is mostly a rebrand of, you know, move fast, break things, which has been Silicon Valley's, you know, mantra since early Facebook. But with the added sort of religious, almost philosophy behind it, and the very effective altruist style of speaking a…”
Assertion Partly supported
SBF Funneled Anthropic Investment Through Alameda to Obscure His Name
“A lot of it went to venture investments. So Sam Bankman Freed was investing in a bunch of different companies, Anthropic being one of them and he decided to do so through Alameda for a lot of them just to avoid having his name associated with it.”
Assertion Supported
Emails Show SBF's Mother Advised Him on Straw Political Donations
“And then there were also emails from his mother, who was a very active political, ah, sort of philanthropist. She ran a fund to try to donate to progressive causes, and she was effectively making, you know, giving advice in these emails about making straw dona…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
White: Effective accelerationists want fast AI development regardless of risks
“The effective accelerationists, on the other hand, believe that we should just go all out, no breaks, develop as quickly as we can without any real regard for the risks, and that it will all just sort of work itself out because of some philosophy that they sor…”
Opinion
White: Framing AI debates as EA versus e/acc ignores established research
“We've been seeing this framing of the AI debate as being between the effective altruists and the effective accelerationists, as though those are the two sides of the debate. When in reality, that is a very small portion and it's a very extreme and very loud po…”
Opinion
White: Giving e/acc outsized media attention risks a self-fulfilling prophecy
“The idea that effective acceleration is now will be dictating the future of this entire field, I think is is it's something that risks becoming sort of a self fulfilling prophecy where we now give these people far more attention and sort of you know, weight to…”
Insight
White: AI believers shift definitions of sentience to make AGI seem plausible
“People begin to really change their own definitions of what artificial general intelligence means, what sentience means, what humanity means, in order to make these things seem more plausible or more true than they really are.”
Assertion Supported
Alameda Was Allowed Massively Negative Account Balance on FTX
“Alameda Research also traded on the FTX exchange, and they served as a market maker there, and they were given the ability on that exchange to draw down a line of credit such that they could have a massively negative account balance on FTX. And that's somethin…”
Assertion Supported
Insiders Admitted FTX's Token Assets Could Never Be Liquidated at Mark
“There was a lot of assets that they were holding that were strongly tied to the success of the FTX exchange, and which a lot of these insiders have testified would never be able to be liquidated at anywhere near the price that they were putting on their balanc…”
Prediction Held up
Molly White Predicts SBF Will Be Found Guilty, Face 10-20 Years
“Yeah, I think you will be found guilty, at least on, you know, substantial number of the charges. It's hard to say, and I'm certainly not legally qualified to. ... Yeah, so, I think that, you know, 1020 years is probably the minimum that we'll be seeing but I …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
White: Effective Altruists favor slower, methodical AI development for safety
“Effective altruism is a group of people who believe in sort of doing as much good as possible with this sort of like data driven analysis approach... And why they have largely adopted this idea that although they think we should be developing artificial intell…”
Opinion
SBF's Legacy as Fraudster Permanent Even if Customers Are Made Whole
“I think that may ultimately not be super relevant to Sam Bankman-Fried's legacy. I think it's hard to overcome the perception in the public eye that he was a fraudster, which, you know, he was regardless of whether or not customers are made whole.”
Assertion Supported
Ellison Testified SBF Requested 'Alternative Balance Sheets' to Mask Liabilities
“Caroline Ellison testified to preparing balance sheets for the company and then at Sam Bankman Free's request, preparing what he referred to as alternative balance sheets. And those were basically Copies of the balance sheet where she would move around or rena…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Effective Altruism Philosophy Will Persist Even if the Movement Rebrands
“I think that even if effective altruism under that name does not continue to exist, I think the philosophy will.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
FTX Is One of the Largest Financial Frauds in Recent History
“This is one of the largest financial frauds that we've seen in a long time.”