The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Krieger: Space-based data centers actually might make sense
“At first, I admittedly thought it was a crazy idea in general, but now I'm like, oh, I actually really can understand why this might make sense.”
Krieger: Outcome-based AI pricing will be extremely difficult for broad knowledge work.
“It gets so much fuzzier on these like tasks that we actually ask Claude these days.
Like I had a strategy document.
I use Claude to critique my strategy document.
Like,
What was the outcome?
It's like, well, I don't know.
It's like, tell me how the strat…”
Krieger: Meta's Search Bar Chatbots Were Not Particularly Transformative
“Initial wave of, well, you know, we've got some chat bot type stuff in the search bars was like not particularly transformative.”
Krieger: Outcome-based pricing is very hard for general LLM work
“It gets so much fuzzier on these like tasks that we actually ask Claude these days. Like I had a strategy document. I use Claude to critique my strategy document like. What was the outcome? It's like, well, I don't know. It's like, tell me how the strategy goe…”
Krieger: Simple text-box interfaces are no longer sufficient for frontier AI
“Spending a lot of time in lab saying just a text box and a big text It's not going to cut it anymore. Like when I mentioned that the models feel like they're way smarter than me when they talk to me, sometimes I'm like, can you draw me a picture? Because this …”