The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Cherney: Soft-power exchange is more likely for Taiwan than military invasion
“I think what's a lot more likely is some kind of soft power exchange like what happened in Hong Kong over time. I think realistically, that's a more Likely option, although I'm not saying Xi Jinping won't just invade like he absolutely will.”
Cherney: Semiconductor factory buildouts are very likely to cause painful overcapacity
“It's very likely, I would say that we're going to lead, we're going to see some over capacity essentially. So like people are building, especially memory companies are building tons of factories right now. And typically the chip industry is, again, I'm sure ev…”
Cherney: Chip industry likely faces overcapacity and severe cyclical downturn
“Very likely, I would say that we're going to lead, we're going to see some over capacity essentially. So like people are building, especially memory companies are building tons of factories right now. And typically the chip industry is, again, I'm sure everybo…”